<![CDATA[Hedgehogs.net: '' related content]]> http://www.hedgehogs.net/tag/www.ism.ws3?view=rss http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/5234403/top-5-economics-graphs-of-the-week-9-october-2010 Sat, 09 Oct 2010 00:18:25 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/5234403/top-5-economics-graphs-of-the-week-9-october-2010 <![CDATA[Top 5 Economics Graphs of the Week - 9 October 2010]]> This week we look at some of the monetary policy decisions during the past week (Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Europe, UK, Philippines). Then we review some interesting data points from the US; non-manufacturing PMI, consumer credit, and the nonfarm payrolls report. Then we finish up with a look at the strong employment numbers in Australia.

1. Monetary Policy Review
Among the central banks announcing monetary policy decisions last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its rate at 4.50%, the Central bank of Indonesia held at 6.50%, the Bank of Japan decreased from 0.10% to between 0 and 0.10%, Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas held at 4.00%, the European Central Bank held at 1.00%, and the Bank of England held at 0.50%. So all quiet really except for japan who also announced a 5 trillion yen quantitative easing program where it would buy bonds, REITs, and even shares in an attempt to ease further and stimulate the economy. The close call was Australia, which is likely to raise at their next meeting as the Australian economy goes from strength to strength (more on this later).


2. US Non-manufacturing PMI
The US non-manufacturing index rebounded in September on the back of a surge in new export orders. The index rose to 53.2 from 51.5 in August, and up against consensus estimates for 52.0. The other standouts in the report were inventories (falling from 53.5 to 47), supplier deliveries (improving to 55.0 from 51.0), employment (improving to 50.2 from 48.2). Overall the non-manufacturing PMI report showed relatively broad strength (especially as compared to the manufacturing PMI report released last week). Thus the result is relatively positive in the scheme of things.

3. US Consumer Credit
US Consumer Credit continued to contract in August as the deleveraging cycle continues to run its course. In total consumer credit contracted by $3.3 billion in August, vs -$3.6 billion in July, and slightly below an expected contraction of -$4.0 billion. Breaking it down to revolving vs non-revolving, non-revolving is experiencing continued positive numbers due largely to car loans. But overall it reflects the trend of consumer deleveraging, and fits with the data we're seeing in terms of savings rates and retail sales. So basically it's the same old story of the long hard recovery.

4. US Nonfarm Payrolls
So it should be no surprise that we're still seeing subdued results in the non-farm payrolls data. in September payrolls fell by -95k vs consensus for -8k and previous -54k, but stripping out the government cuts and census worker cycle; private payrolls expanded by 64k, which was slightly down against August 67k and consensus 85k. Average earnings were flat against August, and the average work week was also flat. So really just another subdued result as the subdued economic recovery continues to unfold. But of course the positive numbers in the private payrolls can't be ignored, it says that there is at least a pulse - albeit a weak one.

5. Australian Employment
Looking at Australia, the jobs story is a much different one with jobs expanding again, the Australian economy added 49.5k jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, with all of the strength again coming from full-time jobs, with part time jobs actually contracting as part-timers converted to full-timers and new employees entered the market. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1%. So again the lucky country rides strong as it continues to expand its resource sector and reaps the residual benefits of the stimulus spending last year. With continued strength in the employment data its almost a given (unless anything external happens) that the RBA will need to start lifting rates again in November.

Summary

So we saw continued inaction by the central banks around the world this week as the various monetary policy decisions were announced. Much of the inaction is simply due to a relative comfort of the risks of greater inflation vs the risk of slowing or halting the economic recovery. But in some cases perhaps the more probable or helpful move would even be continued expansion e.g. in the UK, and as Japan acted in its apparently desperate moves. One thing is sure - it will pay to closely watch the central bankers around the world as the recovery unfolds.

Over to the US, we saw signs of strength in the non-manufacturing sectors, just as last week we saw rather ominous signs from the manufacturing sector - which is consistent with a confuse and muddling recovery. We also saw no surprises in the direction of the results in the consumer credit data as deleveraging plays through and in employment as the recovery remains subdued. But in Australia the employment situation is coming along strong - just as the economy is there. So in terms of what I've previously said - nothing much has changed and things are evolving much as expected.

Sources
1. Trading Economics www.tradingeconomics.com
2. Institute for Supply Management www.ism.ws
3. US Federal Reserve www.federalreserve.gov
4. Bureau of Labour Statistics www.bls.gov
5. Australian Bureau of Statistics www.abs.gov.au


Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs9oct.html


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/4624396/top-5-economics-graphs-of-the-week-7-august-2010 Sat, 07 Aug 2010 01:22:00 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/4624396/top-5-economics-graphs-of-the-week-7-august-2010 <![CDATA[Top 5 Economics Graphs of the Week - 7 August 2010]]>

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/4400948/top-5-graphs-of-the-week-10-july-2010 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 23:15:56 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/4400948/top-5-graphs-of-the-week-10-july-2010 <![CDATA[Top 5 Graphs of the Week - 10 July 2010]]> This week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.

1. US Consumer Credit
Unsurprisingly, given the way much of the US data is pointing lately, the consumer credit figures dropped-off further in May, as deleveraging continued and consumer appetites for new lending remained cool. Consumer credit fell -$9.1 billion in May, vs expected -$2.0 billion, and a revised (down from positive $1 billion) -$14.9 billion. But in some ways a negative is a positive, sure in the short term it's not great, but it's a process that needs to continue, the US consumer needs to continue recovering; pay down debt after excessive borrowing, re-build balance sheets, and generally live within their means (which will be made even more difficult by potentially more constrained means in which to live!).

2. US Non-manufacturing PMI
Sticking with the theme of growing pessimism in the US (have you noticed all the articles being churned out on the next depression, the double dip, etc etc?) - whether it is warranted or not... The ISM non-manufacturing PMI or NMI, disappointed as well; falling to 53.9 from 55.4 (consensus 55). The employment sub-index fell back below 50 to 49.7, new orders slipped again to 54.4, and prices (similar to the manufacturing index) fell -6.8 to 53.8 - signaling a potential mismatch between supply and demand, and pointing to further slowing of inflation in the short term. The first half of this year has been easy for the US, the second half will be a little bit more difficult, and it's likely the W-shaped recovery will start seem more and more likely. But as noted in the previous chart; this has to be a structural recovery - not a cyclical one, and it's going to be hard.

3. Australian employment
Australia saw further jobs growth in June, adding 45.9k jobs vs an expected 15k, and building on the 22.8 added in May. This brings the total to 185k YTD, and 105k for the June quarter (-22.8k in Q2 2009). So overall a good outcome for the Australian economy, the strong labour market will likely underpin the economy as some of the stimulus measures start to run out (e.g. monetary policy tightening). It will also increase the case for further hikes of the interest rate as employment growth sees increasing rates of capacity utilisation. But as noted by the RBA in its recent monetary policy announcement, the Australian economy is basically fine at the moment - it's the global economy that will make or break the recovery from here.

4. Monetary Policy review
The week saw a few non-events on the monetary policy front with the BOE (Bank of England), ECB (European Central Bank), and RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) holding each of their respective policy rates steady - as expected. But there was a couple of interesting moves in Asia; BNM (Bank Negara Malaysia) increased rates 25bps again to 2.75% as growth continued to surge. Likewise the BOK (Bank of Korea) increased rates for the first time in in 2 years, lifting the rate 25bps to 2.25%, having held at 2% for about 17 months. The actions are consistent with the view of a 3-tiered economic recovery; the fast growing emerging markets, the selected developed economies, and the languishing advanced economies.

5. IMF World Economic Outlook
Another key update out this week was the IMF's periodic update to its World Economic Outlook. The IMF updated its global growth forecasts, projecting the global economy to growth 4.5% in 2010, and 4.25% in 2011; representing an increase of about 0.50% in 2010 - reflecting stronger activity in the first half of the year. They rightly pointed out however that risks to the recovery "have risen sharply amid renewed financial turbulence", and that one of the key risks to the economic recovery - and to a more sustainable recovery is policy reform; the growth forecasts "hinge on implementation of policies to rebuild confidence and stability".

Summary

To provide a brief summary; US consumer confidence disappointed in May, adding to a string of disappointing US data, and adding to the case of further slowing. The non-manufacturing PMI did nothing to improve the outlook. And as noted the US economic recovery will need to be structural (because there just isn't the capacity for a cyclical recovery at the moment), so there will be a recovery - but it's going to be hard.

Meanwhile, Australia is cruising along (one of the tier-2 economies), adding jobs left right and center, and possibly adding to the case for a further increase or two of the interest rate. But as the RBA noted, while the economic recovery in Australia is relatively entrenched, it is very much exposed to the course of the global economy.

On the monetary policy front, the developed economies held as expected, but the faster growing Asian economies hiked rates, as the risks shifted to containing inflation over stimulating growth. And on that note, the IMF slightly lifted its global growth forecasts for 2010 in its update to the world economic outlook, but noted significant risks to the recovery.

Sources
1. US Federal Reserve www.federalreserve.gov
2. US Institute for Supply Management www.ism.ws
3. Australian Bureau of Statistics www.abs.gov.au
4. Bank of England www.bankofengland.co.uk ECB www.ecb.int Reserve Bank of Australia www.rba.gov.au Bank Negara Malaysia www.bnm.gov.my Bank of Korea www.bok.or.kr
5. International Monetary Fund www.imf.org


Article Source: http://www.econgrapher.com/top5graphs10jul.html

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/4400442/top-5-graphs-of-the-week-10-july-2010 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 20:39:41 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/econgrapher/read/4400442/top-5-graphs-of-the-week-10-july-2010 <![CDATA[Top 5 Graphs of the week - 10 July 2010]]>

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