<![CDATA[Hedgehogs.net: Ken Yeadon's connections' blogs]]> http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/keny/friends/?view=rss http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365833/updatethis-week-in-monetary-policy-egypt-australia-brazil-poland-canada-kenya-sweden-euro-area-uk-and-mexico Wed, 03 Sep 2014 01:43:31 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365833/updatethis-week-in-monetary-policy-egypt-australia-brazil-poland-canada-kenya-sweden-euro-area-uk-and-mexico <![CDATA[UPDATE-This week in monetary policy: Egypt, Australia, Brazil, Poland, Canada, Kenya, Sweden, euro area, U.K and Mexico]]>
    This week (September 1 - 5) 10 central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy, including the countries and jurisdictions of Egypt, Australia, Brazil, Poland, Canada, Kenya, Sweden, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Mexico. This item was updated to include Kenya's central bank.
    Following table includes name of the country, its MSCI classification, the date the policy decision will be announced, the current policy rate, and the rate one year ago.

COUNTRY MSCI              DATE  CURRENT  RATE         1 YEAR AGO
EGYPT EM 1-Sep 9.25% 9.25%
AUSTRALIA DM 2-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
BRAZIL EM  3-Sep 11.00% 9.00%
POLAND EM 3-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
CANADA DM 3-Sep 1.00% 1.00%
KENYA FM 3-Sep 8.50% 8.50%
SWEDEN DM 4-Sep 0.25% 1.00%
EURO AREA 4-Sep 0.15% 0.50%
UNITED KINGDOM DM 4-Sep 0.50% 0.50%
MEXICO EM 5-Sep 3.00% 3.75%

    

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/skinnercm/read/11365812/digibank-the-next-generation-of-banking Tue, 02 Sep 2014 11:54:02 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/skinnercm/read/11365812/digibank-the-next-generation-of-banking <![CDATA[Digibank: the next generation of banking]]>

I'm having this conversation about what a digital bank is all about and suddenly a light switches on.

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]]> 11365812 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/grossiro/read/11365809/oggi-si-vende-in-un-modo-diverso Tue, 02 Sep 2014 10:02:35 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/grossiro/read/11365809/oggi-si-vende-in-un-modo-diverso <![CDATA[Oggi si vende in un modo diverso]]>

Riflessione del giorno: oggi si vende in un modo diverso. Come mai le aziende italiane continuano ad ignorarlo e continuano a preferire il telemarketing selvaggio e lo spam?

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365801/bis-payments-committee-cpss-renamed-cpmi Tue, 02 Sep 2014 06:53:22 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365801/bis-payments-committee-cpss-renamed-cpmi <![CDATA[BIS' payments committee CPSS renamed CPMI]]>     The Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS), one of the standing committees hosted by Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS, has been renamed as the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) to better reflect its actual activities, according to the BIS.
    The origins of CPSS date back to the late 1970 when central banks intensified their cooperation in international payment and settlement systems following the June 26, 1974 failure of the small German bank Bankhaus Herstatt.
    German regulators liquidated Herstatt but on that same morning banks in Frankfurt released payments in German marks to Herstatt in exchange for U.S. dollars that were scheduled to be delivered later that day in New York. But Herstatt's counter parties in New York never received their funds because of the time-zone difference. Herstatt was closed by regulators before dollar payments could be made during U.S. business hours.
    Central bankers then began work on how to avoid this so-called settlement risk in foreign exchange trading and in 1990 CPSS was set up as a permanent body to develop global standards. CPSS helped lead to the introduction of Real Time Gross Settlement Systems (RTGS), which ensure that payments between different banks in different time-zones are executed in real-time and are final.

    While the basic role of CPSS did not change over the years, it gradually expanded its field of interest in parallel with the growing complexity and interdependence of financial markets.
    After two rounds of enlargement in 1997-98 and 2009, the Committee today includes representatives from 25 central banks and reports to Global Economy Meeting (GEM), one of the main bimonthly meetings of central bank governors that are held at the BIS.
    GEM comprises governors from 30 of the world's largest central banks that account for about four-fifths of global growth. In addition to renaming CPSS to CPMI, the GEM's meeting in June also endorsed a new mandate and charter for CPMI.
    CPMI's mandate covers payment, settlement and clearing arrangements both within and across jurisdictions, and covers both large-value and retail payments, foreign exchange settlement, securities and derivatives clearing and settlement, multilateral netting or collateral management.
    "It is difficult to predict what lies ahead, but it will be essential that the Committee remains alert to any future developments that may affect the safety and efficiency of the global financial market infrastructure," Benoit Coeure, European Central Bank (ECB) board member and chairman of CPMI, said in a statement.
    "It would be highly damaging to the global economy if markets were to cease to function effectively because of concerns about the risks of post-trade infrastructure. Hence the importance of regulation and oversight of payments, clearing and settlement arrangements taking the most rigorous approach possible to risk reduction and management."

    www.CentralBankNews.info


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365796/egypt-holds-rate-to-limit-inflation-anchor-expectations Tue, 02 Sep 2014 06:53:14 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365796/egypt-holds-rate-to-limit-inflation-anchor-expectations <![CDATA[Egypt holds rate to limit inflation, anchor expectations]]>     Egypt's central bank maintained its benchmark overnight deposit rate at 9.25 percent, as expected, saying its key rates are appropriate to anchor inflation expectations "and limit a generalized price increase given the lagged transmission of the previous rate hike across the economy."
    In July the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) surprised financial markets by raising its rate by 100 basis points in what it described as a preemptive move to anchor inflation expectations and limit a general increase in prices following the government's price increase on a range of regulated items, including fuel, electricity and tobacco, as part of its plan to cut budget deficits.
    Egypt's headline inflation rate rose to 11.04 percent in July from 8.2 percent in June, the bank said, adding the government's price increase explained the bulk of the price increase along with the seasonal effect of Ramadan. Core inflation in July rose to 9.57 percent from 8.76 percent in June.
   "While the direct first round effect of the price adjustments have led to a level shift up in the headline CPI in July 2014, higher than anticipated indirect and second round effects pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook," the CBE said.
   However, this risk is countered by an unlikely sharp rise in international food prices so upside risks from imported inflation remain contained, the central bank added.

    Egypt's economy, which has seen weak growth since a popular uprising in 2011 unseated Hosni Mubarak, improved in the first calendar quarter of 2014, or the third quarter of fiscal 2013/14.
    Gross Domestic Product expanded by an annual 2.50 percent, up from 1.44 percent in the previous quarter, helped by manufacturing and construction. But tourism and petroleum sectors still shrunk and investment levels continue to be low, the CBE said.
   "Looking ahead, while investments in domestic mega projects such as the Suez Canal are expected to contribute to economic growth, the downside risks that surround the global recovery on the back of challenges facing the Euro area and the softening growth in emerging markets could pose downside risks to domestic GDP going forward," the central bank said.
    Egypt's economy expanded by 2.1 percent in 2013, largely steady from 2012's 2.2 percent but slightly up from 2011's 1.8 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 2.3 percent growth this year and 4.1 percent in 2015.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

   

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365789/australia-maintains-rates-still-sees-period-of-stable-rates Tue, 02 Sep 2014 05:43:19 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365789/australia-maintains-rates-still-sees-period-of-stable-rates <![CDATA[Australia maintains rates, still sees period of stable rates]]>     Australia's central bank maintained its benchmark cash rate at 2.50 percent, as widely expected, and repeated its previous quidance that "on present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."
 

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11365776/inflation-pressures-in-core-food-components Mon, 01 Sep 2014 21:09:12 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11365776/inflation-pressures-in-core-food-components <![CDATA[Inflation Pressures in Core Food Components]]> By EconMatters



Inflation Isn`t Moderating, It is Consolidating before the Next Leg Up

Inflation numbers of late have been helped by the drop in fuel costs, the agricultural grains have been brought down in the futures market by the overplanting of corn, but eating out for the weekend where shrimp, steak, other seafood and vegetables are consumed at dinner brings home the idea that restaurant costs are only going up on the whole, and expect menu prices to continue to be raised at your favorite restaurant. 

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs are up 26% year over year even after a sizable pullback in the futures market, the pork industry really got hit by a killer pig virus, but the trend in other meats for the year indicates that costs for this segment are broader based than just the disease specific issues.

Cattle Herds

For example, Live Cattle futures are up 18% year over year due to a multi-decade low in cattle herds, it seems it is much harder, and the margins are much lower raising livestock compared with planting corn for farmers which makes sense when you factor in all the underlying costs from veterinary bills, feed and electricity, to transportation and regulatory related costs.

Milk Prices

The Dairy Industry hasn`t escaped the inflation pressures with a strong global demand for dairy and protein, producing cows are a robust asset these days. Milk prices have also been hurt by the drought for farmers on the West Coast to stronger demand for Greek Yogurt for alternative protein sources we see Class III Milk futures up a robust 40% year over year with no immediate pullback on the charts.

Oil & Fuel Prices


Oil and fuel prices have dropped but the costs associated with getting it out of the ground are still inflationary from the equipment costs to skilled labor and regulatory related costs so it will be interesting to see how the price of oil shakes out many crosscurrents from stronger demand on an improving economy, geo-political concerns, robust production output domestically, higher fuel efficiency in developed countries, more cars on the road in china, and global pollution and infrastructure constraints with a price that basically has moved between $80 and $120 for WTI/Brent since the financial crisis. 

Normal Trading Range

It is too early to read anything regarding the recent pullback in prices because as just some of the shorts covering caused a $4 a barrel spike in prices off the recent bottom, and the oil market goes on runs both up and down in price that can be anywhere from $10 to $30 and can happen in and out of season although they usually center around seasonal demand as a rule of thumb.

The Bull & Bear Case for Oil Prices

I can make a case for the last 6 years being the pullback in oil prices, i.e., no real price breakouts. And similarly I can make an entire other case that oil will pull back even further on production increases globally, higher efficiency standards globally, alternative fuel technologies, and changing driving behaviors. 

Oil Supply Chain Inflation Alive & Well

But the costs associated with the industry should continue to rise from an inflation standpoint because component parts, equipment, labor, medical, regulatory, transportation logistics and other costs in general are rising at a steady clip for the last 5 years, and look to continue rising going forward for the next five years.

Wages Will Never Keep Up With Inflation on the Average

For some places in the economy inflation is red hot smack in the face of the consumer, in other places it slowly creeps up on the consumer without them realizing, but regardless of what the official inflation reports that the Fed follows indicates, real inflation pressures in the economy continue to rise every year, and a good steak is going to cost consumers a higher hourly wage rate.


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365764/this-week-in-monetary-policy-egypt-australia-brazil-poland-canada-sweden-euro-area-uk-and-mexico Mon, 01 Sep 2014 14:43:18 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365764/this-week-in-monetary-policy-egypt-australia-brazil-poland-canada-sweden-euro-area-uk-and-mexico <![CDATA[This week in monetary policy: Egypt, Australia, Brazil, Poland, Canada, Sweden, euro area, U.K. and Mexico]]>
    This week (September 1 - 5) nine central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy, including those for the countries and jurisdictions of Egypt (which was originally scheduled last week), Australia, Brazil, Poland, Canada, Sweden, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Mexico.    
    Following table includes name of the country, its MSCI classification, the date the policy decision will be announced, the current policy rate, and the rate one year ago.

COUNTRY MSCI              DATE  CURRENT  RATE         1 YEAR AGO
EGYPT EM 1-Sep 9.25% 9.25%
AUSTRALIA DM 2-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
BRAZIL EM  3-Sep 11.00% 9.00%
POLAND EM 3-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
CANADA DM 3-Sep 1.00% 1.00%
SWEDEN DM 4-Sep 0.25% 1.00%
EURO AREA 4-Sep 0.15% 0.50%
UNITED KINGDOM DM 4-Sep 0.50% 0.50%
MEXICO EM 5-Sep 3.00% 3.75%


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/skinnercm/read/11365757/customers-no-longer-fit-into-neat-agebased-demographics Mon, 01 Sep 2014 11:44:05 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/skinnercm/read/11365757/customers-no-longer-fit-into-neat-agebased-demographics <![CDATA[Customers no longer fit into neat, age-based demographics]]>

Presenting at a conference recently, the opening keynote began by saying: “we are living with six generations of human, who all have different tastes and needs”.

read more...

]]> 11365757 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365747/monetary-policy-week-in-review-aug-2529-2014-markets-mull-draghi-as-israel-cuts-colombia-raises-rates Mon, 01 Sep 2014 04:23:22 +0100 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11365747/monetary-policy-week-in-review-aug-2529-2014-markets-mull-draghi-as-israel-cuts-colombia-raises-rates <![CDATA[Monetary Policy Week in Review â Aug 25-29, 2014: Markets mull Draghi as Israel cuts, Colombia raises rates]]>     Speculation over further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) dominated global monetary policy last week as markets continued to digest the implication of Mario Draghi’s speech in Jackson Hole.
    In his speech on Friday Aug. 22 ECB President Draghi said he will use "all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability" and is "ready to adjust the policy stance further."
    In addition, Draghi went beyond his normal language about the need for fiscal discipline and called on euro area policymakers to loosen the fiscal strings and get serious about structural reforms that can improve the area's global competitiveness.
    Whether Draghi and the ECB will embark on full-blown quantitative easing this week following another decline in inflation in August is one of the major factors that will influence sentiment in global financial markets, increasingly rattled by unsettling news from the Ukraine and the Mideast.
    Underscoring the economic toll from fighting in Gaza, Israel last week cut its policy rate for the third time this year to 0.25 percent in response to slowing economic growth, falling inflation and a decline in its shekel currency.
    Whether the Bank of Israel (BOI) was thinking about the ECB was not clear, but in its statement the BOI predicted continued accommodative monetary policy by major central banks for an extended period of time, a comment that may be prescient given that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are currently shifting toward monetary tightening.
    The Central Bank of Colombia was the only other central bank that changed its rates last week, raising its intervention rate for the fifth consecutive time to curb inflation.
    But the Colombian central bank signaled that it may be getting close to pausing in its tightening cycle, changing its guidance to include the comment that it hopes the latest rate rise would keep inflation expectations close to its 3.0 percent target and economic activity at its potential level.
    The other four central banks that held monetary policy meetings last week maintained their policy rates, including the National Bank of Hungary, which as promised froze rates after 24 consecutive rate reductions.
    And while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey maintained its benchmark repo rate at 8.25 percent, it again nudged down its rate corridor by trimming the overnight lending rate – the corridor’s ceiling – by 75 basis points to 11.25 percent while it kept the borrowing rate – the floor – steady at 7.50 percent.

LIST OF LAST WEEK’S CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS:

TABLE WITH LAST WEEK’S MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:
COUNTRY MSCI      NEW RATE            OLD RATE         1 YEAR AGO
ISRAEL DM 0.25% 0.50% 1.25%
ANGOLA 8.75% 8.75% 9.75%
HUNGARY 2.10% 2.10% 3.80%
TURKEY EM 8.25% 8.25% 4.50%
ALBANIA 2.50% 2.50% 3.50%
COLOMBIA EM 4.50% 4.25% 3.25%

    This week (Week 36) nine central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Egypt (which was originally scheduled for last week), Australia, Brazil, Poland, Canada, Sweden, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Mexico.

COUNTRY MSCI              DATE  CURRENT  RATE         1 YEAR AGO
EGYPT EM 1-Sep 9.25% 9.25%
AUSTRALIA DM 2-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
BRAZIL EM  3-Sep 11.00% 9.00%
POLAND EM 3-Sep 2.50% 2.50%
CANADA DM 3-Sep 1.00% 1.00%
SWEDEN DM 4-Sep 0.25% 1.00%
EURO AREA 4-Sep 0.15% 0.50%
UNITED KINGDOM DM 4-Sep 0.50% 0.50%
MEXICO EM 5-Sep 3.00% 3.75%




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