<![CDATA[Hedgehogs.net: Ken Yeadon's connections' blogs]]> http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/keny/friends/?view=rss http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654503/the-vix-fomc-setup-video Tue, 06 Dec 2016 18:23:46 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654503/the-vix-fomc-setup-video <![CDATA[The VIX FOMC Setup (Video)]]> By EconMatters


We discuss a VIX Trading Setup into the FOMC Meeting next week, with the option to rollover into the January contract as we expect a significant spike in the VIX over the next 6-8 weeks. Buy the VIX into the FOMC Rate Hike Meeting next week at these low levels!



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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654494/australia-maintains-rate-and-neutral-guidance Tue, 06 Dec 2016 05:54:44 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654494/australia-maintains-rate-and-neutral-guidance <![CDATA[Australia maintains rate and neutral guidance]]>     Australia's central bank left its benchmark cash rate at 1.50 percent, as widely expected, and confirmed its neutral stance by saying the current policy was "consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."
    But the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which cut its rate by a total of 50 basis points in May and August, sounded slightly more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and inflation, saying a rise in commodity prices was helping boost national income while the global outlook for inflation was "more balanced than it has been for some time."
    Australia is a major exporter of iron ore, coal, gold, crude oil and natural gas, with the gradual rise in prices this year, following a slump in 2014, improving its terms of trade and thus export earnings.
    The country's Gross Domestic Product grew by an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of this year, the fastest rate since the second quarter of 2012, but the RBA said it expects a slowdown by the end of the year before economic activity picks up again.
   "The outlook for business investment remains subdued, although measures of business sentiment remain above average," RBA Governor Philip Lowe said.
   Australia's inflation rate rose slightly to 1.3 percent in the third quarter from 1.0 percent in the second quarter, below the RBA's target of 2-3 percent, with continued subdued growth in labour costs expected to keep inflation low for some time.
    As in recent months, the RBA again said an appreciating exchange rate could "complicate" the economy's adjustment to lower mining investment.
    The Australian dollar has firmed since mid-January but remains far below par to the U.S. dollar that was seen from 2011 to early 2013. Today the Australian dollar, known as the Aussie, was trading at 1.34 to the U.S. dollar, up 1.2.2 percent since the start of this year.
    Last week Paris-based OECD said it expected Australia's growth to strengthen to an annual rate of about 3 percent by 2018 and the RBA will raise its rate sometime before the end of next year.





    The Reserve Bank of Australia issued the following statement by its governor, Philip Lowe:
   
"At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Labour market conditions in the advanced economies have improved over the past year. Economic conditions in China have steadied, supported by growth in infrastructure and property construction, although medium-term risks to growth remain. Inflation remains below most central banks’ targets, although headline inflation rates have increased recently. Globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time.
Commodity prices have risen over the course of this year, reflecting both stronger demand and cut-backs in supply in some countries. The higher commodity prices have supported a rise in Australia’s terms of trade, although they remain much lower than they have been in recent years. The higher prices are providing a boost to national income.
Financial markets are functioning effectively. Government bond yields have risen further with the adjustment having been orderly. Funding costs for some borrowers have also risen, but remain low. Globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.
In Australia, the economy is continuing its transition following the mining investment boom. Some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again. Further increases in exports of resources are expected as completed projects come on line. The outlook for business investment remains subdued, although measures of business sentiment remain above average.
Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed. The unemployment rate has declined this year, although some measures of labour underutilisation are little changed. There continues to be considerable variation in employment outcomes across the country. Part-time employment has been growing strongly, but employment growth overall has slowed. The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment in the near term.
Inflation remains quite low. The continuing subdued growth in labour costs means that inflation is expected to remain low for some time, before returning to more normal levels.
Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 has been helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are assisting the economy to make the necessary adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
Conditions in the housing market have strengthened overall, although they vary considerably around the country. In some markets, prices are rising briskly, while in others they are declining. Housing credit has picked up a little, although turnover of established dwellings is lower than it was a year ago. Supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards and some lenders are taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades.
Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654485/american-greed-the-fix-video Mon, 05 Dec 2016 20:43:44 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654485/american-greed-the-fix-video <![CDATA[American Greed - The Fix (Video)]]> By EconMatters


We discuss the markets in general today in this video before moving onto the topic of American Greed, and an analysis and cure for the typical way investors lose all their money to these Ponzi Schemes. Ask for 3 year audited returns from an accredited 3rd Party auditing firm.



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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654477/metals-and-forex-galore-video Sun, 04 Dec 2016 18:13:45 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654477/metals-and-forex-galore-video <![CDATA[Metals and Forex Galore (Video)]]> By EconMatters


We compare the year over year metrics for the Metals and Currency Markets in this video. Palladium and Copper outperformed Silver and Gold Markets. The Russian Ruble and Brazilian Real strengthened against the US Dollar in year over year comparisons. The British Pound, Mexican Peso and Chinese Yuan all weakened considerably against the US Dollar the past year.




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11654477
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654472/this-week-in-monetary-policy-australia-argentina-india-namibia-canada-poland-euro-area-serbia-and-ukraine Sun, 04 Dec 2016 14:44:45 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654472/this-week-in-monetary-policy-australia-argentina-india-namibia-canada-poland-euro-area-serbia-and-ukraine <![CDATA[This week in monetary policy: Australia, Argentina, India, Namibia, Canada, Poland, euro area, Serbia and Ukraine]]>
    This week (December 4 through December 10) central banks from 9 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Australia, Argentina, India, Namibia, Canada, Poland, the euro area, Serbia and Ukraine.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 49
DEC 4 - DEC 10, 2016:
COUNTRY       DATE           RATE      LATEST        YTD     1 YR AGO    MSCI
AUSTRALIA 6-Dec 1.50% 0 -50 2.00%       DM
ARGENTINA 6-Dec 24.75% -50 -1,200             N/A       FM
INDIA 7-Dec 6.25% -25 -50 6.75%       EM
NAMIBIA 7-Dec 7.00% 0 50 6.50%
CANADA 7-Dec 0.50% 0 0 0.50%       DM
POLAND 7-Dec 1.50% 0 0 1.50%       EM
EURO AREA 8-Dec 0.00% 0 -5 0.05%       DM
SERBIA 8-Dec 4.00% 0 -50 4.50%       FM
UKRAINE 8-Dec 14.00% -100 -800 22.00%       FM


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654459/pay-attention-to-sector-rotation-video Sat, 03 Dec 2016 17:33:46 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654459/pay-attention-to-sector-rotation-video <![CDATA[Pay Attention To Sector Rotation (Video)]]> By EconMatters


With the prominence of passive investing stock pickers need to make sure they pick a good stock, but within the right sector which has the passive money at their back from an overall fund flows perspective. Having a strong outperformer in the "hot sector" can really juice your returns!



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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654429/oil-market-theory-discussion-video Fri, 02 Dec 2016 16:53:46 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654429/oil-market-theory-discussion-video <![CDATA[Oil Market Theory Discussion (Video)]]> By EconMatters


We discuss oil market mechanics and overall theory in this video, adding some color, or fleshing out some of our previous comments on the market. The big question is do we get a move down in markets and the oil market early in 2017? As an aside: I meant we tested the $50 level of support in WTI early in the morning, not $40 - it was a late night.




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11654429
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654403/general-market-topics-discussion-video Thu, 01 Dec 2016 18:33:46 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11654403/general-market-topics-discussion-video <![CDATA[General Market Topics Discussion (Video)]]> By EconMatters


We discuss Dennis Gartman in this video, Risk, Financial Markets, Viewer Comments, and several other topics. You always have to ask yourself: Are you the "Fool" in a given market? Risk evaluation is a given regarding anything in financial markets these days, and has been the case forever taking into account the multiple market crashes and "Melt-Ups" in almost every asset class for the last century of historical price data.

Always protect capital at all cost, even if this means taking "cautious losses" to protect financial capital for the long haul. And extrapolating from this idea, you can see why timing is one of the most important concepts of making money in financial markets. Getting the timing right makes your work a whole lot easier, all else being equal in markets.




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11654403
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654397/brazil-cuts-rate-25-bps-larger-cuts-depend-on-inflation Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:24:42 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654397/brazil-cuts-rate-25-bps-larger-cuts-depend-on-inflation <![CDATA[Brazil cuts rate 25 bps, larger cuts depend on inflation]]>     Brazil's central bank lowered its benchmark Selic rate by another 25 basis points to 13.75 percent, saying "the magnitude of monetary easing and a possible speeding up of its pace will depend on inflation forecasts and expectations."
     The Central Bank of Brazil, which has now cut its rate by 50 basis points following last month's cut - the bank's first rate cut since August 2012 - added the policy decision was unanimous by the members of its Copom committee and no bias was indicated.
    In its guidance, the central bank also said the pace of disinflation may intensify if the country's economic recovery is delayed further and is more gradual than anticipated.
    "The Committee judges that convergence of inflation to the 4.5% target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2017 and 2018, is compatible with a gradual easing of monetary conditions," the central bank said.
    Brazil's inflation rate fell to 7.87 percent in October from 8.48 percent in September to the lowest rate since February 2015, with the central bank saying the drop was better than expected and partly due to lower food prices but also signs of more widespread disinflation.
    The central bank said 2016 inflation forecasts in the reference and market scenarios had dropped to around 6.6 percent from around 7 percent seen last month.
    Forecasts for 2017 show inflation around 4.4 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, while
forecasts for 2018 for the two scenarios were around 3.6 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.
     Brazil's economy shrank by 0.8 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter for the seventh quarter of contraction in a row. On an annual basis, Gross Domestic Product shrank by 2.9 percent compared with a decline of 3.6 percent in the second quarter.
    "The set of indicators released since the last Copom meeting suggests weaker-than-expected economic activity in the short run," the central bank said, adding forecast for growth this year and next year had been revised downward.
      The exchange rate of Brazil's real fell from August 2014 until it hit a record low of around 4.15 to the U.S. dollar in January this year. The real then firmed to around 3.12 in late October before again weakening in the last six weeks.
    The real was trading at 3.39 to the dollar today, still almost 17 percent higher than at the start of this year.


    The Central Bank of Brazil issued the following statement:


"The Copom unanimously decided to reduce the Selic rate to 13.75 percent per year, without bias.
The following observations provide an update of the Copom's baseline scenario:
The set of indicators released since the last Copom meeting suggests weaker-than-expected economic activity in the short run. This led to downward revisions in forecasts for GDP growth in 2016 and 2017. Available evidence indicates that the economic recovery may be further delayed, and be more gradual than previously anticipated;
The global outlook is particularly uncertain. The increase in asset price volatility indicates a possible end to the benign environment for emerging economies. There is a high probability that the process of normalization of the stance of monetary policy in the United States will soon resume, and the course of its economic policy is uncertain;
Recent inflation releases were more favorable than expected, partly due to a drop in food prices, but also with signs of more widespread disinflation;
Inflation expectations for 2017 collected by the Focus survey fell to around 4.9%. Expectations for 2018 and longer horizons remained around 4.5%;
The Committee's inflation forecasts fluctuated around the previous levels due to factors with opposing effects. Forecasts for 2016 in the reference and market scenarios fell to around 6.6%. Forecasts for 2017 in the reference and market scenarios show inflation around 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively. Forecasts for 2018 inflation in the reference and market scenarios are around 3.6% and 4.6%, respectively; and
The steps toward approval of fiscal reforms have been positive so far.
The Committee identifies the following risks to the baseline scenario for inflation:
On the one hand, (i) the possible end to the benign environment for emerging economies might make disinflation more difficult; (ii) signs of pause in the process of disinflation of some IPCA components that are most sensitive to monetary policy and economic slack persist, what may point to slower convergence of inflation to target; (iii) the process of approval and implementation of the necessary reforms and adjustments in the economy is lengthy, and carries uncertainty;
On the other hand, (iv) weaker economic activity and a high level of economic slack may produce disinflation at a faster pace than the one embedded in the Copom's conditional forecasts; (v) short-run inflation behavior has been more favorable, which may signal lower inflation persistence; and (vi) the process of approval and implementation of the necessary reforms and adjustments in the economy may be faster than anticipated.
Taking into account the baseline scenario, the current balance of risks, and the wide array of available information, the Copom unanimously decided to reduce the Selic rate to 13.75 percent per year, without bias. The Committee judges that convergence of inflation to the 4.5% target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2017 and 2018, is compatible with a gradual easing of monetary conditions.
The magnitude of monetary easing and a possible speeding up of its pace will depend on inflation forecasts and expectations, and on the evolution of the aforementioned risk factors. 
In that respect, the Copom emphasizes that the pace of disinflation in its forecasts might intensify if the economic recovery is delayed further, and occurs more gradually than anticipated. 
This intensification of the disinflation process relies on an adequate global environment.
The following members of the Committee voted for this decision: Ilan Goldfajn (Governor), Anthero de Moraes Meirelles, Carlos Viana de Carvalho, Isaac Sidney Menezes Ferreira, Luiz Edson Feltrim, Otávio Ribeiro Damaso, Reinaldo Le Grazie, Sidnei Corrêa Marques and Tiago Couto Berriel."


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654392/angola-holds-rate-and-rules-out-devaluation-of-kwanza Wed, 30 Nov 2016 20:24:46 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11654392/angola-holds-rate-and-rules-out-devaluation-of-kwanza <![CDATA[Angola holds rate and rules out devaluation of kwanza]]>     Angola's central bank maintained its benchmark BNA rate at 16.00 percent and said it was committed to preserve the value of the national currency, "which is why there will be no devaluation of the kwanza."
     The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which has raised its rate by 500 basis points this year to curb inflation, said it would continue to exchange 165.8 kwanza per U.S. dollar "so there is no need for market operators to change the prices of goods and services."
     The BNA also said it taken note of a deceleration in inflation due to its control of liquidity and an increases in the supply of goods and services.
    Angola's inflation rate rose to 40.4 percent in October, the highest rate since July 2004, from 39.4 percent in September, continuing the upward trend since 2015.
    The fall in crude oil prices from mid-2014 has lead to a shortage of foreign exchange in Angola, undermined government revenue and hit the exchange rate of the kwanza.
    The central bank, which has devalued the kwanza several times in the last year, said commercial banks had purchased US$1.268 billion in October, a decrease of 9.24 percent.
    In October credit to the economy rose by 0.42 percent while gross credit to the central government rose 0.82 percent.
    In September the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast 1.25 percent output growth in 2017, up from zero growth this year, due to a recovery in the non-oil sector from higher public spending.
    Inflation was forecast to reach 45 percent by the end of the year before declining to 20 percent next year as tight monetary conditions and a stable kwanza supports disinflation.
    The IMF also said monthly inflation had started to subside and while sales of foreign exchange had helped ease pressures on the market, it added that greater exchange rate flexibility, along with supporting macroeconomic policies, would be essential to maintain the exchange rate, prevent a misallocation of resources and accelerate growth.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

 

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