<![CDATA[Hedgehogs.net: Ken Yeadon's connections' blogs]]> http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/keny/friends/?view=rss http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712366/this-week-in-monetary-policy-ghana-kenya-japan-nigeria-argentina-paraguay-fiji-malaysia-norway-ukraine-euro-area-and-malawi Sun, 21 Jan 2018 22:25:15 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712366/this-week-in-monetary-policy-ghana-kenya-japan-nigeria-argentina-paraguay-fiji-malaysia-norway-ukraine-euro-area-and-malawi <![CDATA[This week in monetary policy: Ghana, Kenya, Japan, Nigeria, Argentina, Paraguay, Fiji, Malaysia, Norway, Ukraine, euro area and Malawi]]>
    This week (January 21 through January 27) central banks from 12 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Ghana, Kenya, Japan, Nigeria, Argentina, Paraguay, Fiji, Malaysia, Norway, Ukraine, the euro area and Malawi.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 4
JAN 21- JAN 27, 2018:
COUNTRY             DATE               RATE           LATEST              YTD            1 YR AGO       MSCI
GHANA 22-Jan 20.00% -100 0 25.50%          FM
KENYA 22-Jan 10.00% 0 0 10.00%          FM
JAPAN 23-Jan -0.10% 0 0 -0.10%          DM
NIGERIA 23-Jan 14.00% 0 0 14.00%          FM
ARGENTINA 23-Jan 28.00% -75 0 24.75%          FM
PARAGUAY 23-Jan 5.25% 0 0 5.50%
FIJI 25-Jan 0.50% 0 0 0.50%
MALAYSIA 25-Jan 3.00% 0 0 3.00%          EM
NORWAY 25-Jan 0.50% 0 0 0.50%          DM
UKRAINE 25-Jan 14.50% 100 0 14.00%          FM
EURO AREA 25-Jan 0.00% 0 0 0.00%          DM
MALAWI 26-Jan 16.00% -200 0 24.00%


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11712366
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11712363/how-high-and-how-long-can-this-cat-jump Sat, 20 Jan 2018 08:03:37 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11712363/how-high-and-how-long-can-this-cat-jump <![CDATA[How High and How Long Can This CAT Jump?]]>

By EconMatters
Jan. 20, 2018

CAT Bouncing after JPM Upgrade

Caterpillar’s (CAT) stock price touched an all-time high of $172.99 on Jan 16 and has drifted lower since.  This price action took place after upgrade from JP Morgan a week ago.  The stock jumped 2% in the day JPM report came out on Jan. 8. 

Shares of Caterpillar have already climbed almost 80% over the past 12 months while the S&P 500 advanced about 20% during the same period.  In fact, Caterpillar was one of the top five performing stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2017.  Caterpillar, along with Boeing, have helped boost DJIA to record highs over the past several months. 

From some of the upgrade analysis you can tell how the investing community has lost almost all common sense perspective in this central banks fueled market rally.  For example, instead of top or bottom line growth potential, UBS bumped up CAT’s target price by 16% a week before JPM noting the tax bill could provide around $750 million for share buybacks.  When has share buyback even become an element in stock recommendation? Does that suggest if Caterpillar decides to invest the extra cash for business, UBS would give it a downgrade?     

“10-year Upcycle”

JPM at least came up with a stronger argument.  According to JPM, the primary driver of CAT shares “in the coming years” is the Republican tax reform bill.  Since then, several other investment houses came out with higher price targets for Caterpillar also citing GOP tax bill as the catalyst.      

JPM argues that the global economy as a whole has entered into a "10-year upcycle" in commodities. Production of iron, coal, copper, etc. is rising, and bringing prices along with it.  In JPM’s estimate, we're currently entering only year two of this upcycle.  That means Caterpillar has nine more years to benefit from the “10-year upcycle”.  

Party like It’s 2005

According to JPM, the construction industry could absorb as much as 233,000 annual unit sales of heavy mining equipment, matching peak sales at the top of the last upcycle in 2005. 

I’m not sure why investors should get all excited over the possibility of the entire construction industry equipment unit sales back to the 2005 levels?  Not to mention it is uncertain how much of the 233,000- unit-sales pie CAT would have?    

What’s Really Going on at CAT?

Now let’s take a look at what’s happening at Caterpillar to actually warrant this exuberance. 
2016 was a five-year low point for Caterpillar.  Its sales were falling for four straight years.  The company suffered a 36% drop in earnings in fiscal 2016 citing weak end-user demand in most of the industries it serves, including construction, oil and gas, mining and rail. 



Caterpillar managed to rebound in 2017.  In 3Q 2017, trailing-12-month sales increased 9% from their 2016 trough, and free cash flow grew 63%.  It is a moderate improvement considering the easy comp's to the 2016 low’s, but enough to impress investors to think Caterpillar has delivered a successful turnaround. 

By the way, I forgot to mention federal agents raided Caterpillar headquarters last March as part of the government investigation into the company’s alleged tax evasion by shifting corporate profits to a subsidiary in Switzerland.     

PE at 112, Really

Caterpillar’s Price Earnings (PE) Ratio has gone from 8.81 in 2006 to currently 114, compared to around 26 for the average of S&P 500.  Normally, the PE of industrial manufacturers such as Caterpillar should have a PE in single digits to the mid-20's range.   
  
Remember the core business of Caterpillar is making industrial equipment such as tractors, which is a mature sector.  And CAT is not a sexy tech stock with tremendous growth potential justifying a high-flying PE multiple.  Even Facebook (FB) only has a PE of 35 which is only 30% of what Caterpillar commands.      

More Like 10-year Tightening Cycle

Furthermore, remember we are actually in the beginning of central banks’ tightening cycle.  The US Fed helicopter is ahead of the monetary easing curve after the 2008 financial crisis, and again is ahead of the coming global tightening cycle.  Expect other central banks to eventually follow suit (it is safe to say within the next 10 years).   A business cycle typically lasts about 8-10 years.  The current business cycle began from the 2008 financial crash/monetary easing and has already pushed into uncharted territory.   I’m not sure how JPM could realistically model the “10-year upcycle” projection given the current lofty valuation on almost all asset classes and the increasingly high risk of war and recession

Technical and Cash Trading

How could a scandal-ridden tractor-making company become such a darling for investors?  Well, that’s just one indication that markets, along with investors, are not behaving normally and rationally. 

Zero Hedge reported how central banks like Swiss National Bank (SNB) made $55 Billion last year by purchasing foreign stocks and bonds.  This is equivalent to massive hedge funds backed by various governments manipulating the markets for its own agenda.  It is like an addictive drug high that everybody is on, but eventually the high will come to a very nasty crash that investors refuse to acknowledge.    

In this irrationally crazy market where a name change incorporating the word “blochchain” could rescue a penny stock from being delisted on Nasdaq, company fundamental analysis and macro event trading have become all but useless traps.  The suitable trading style that I believe could survive in this current environment is technical and momentum cash only trades based on solid research.       

Who will be left holding the bag?  Everybody, after a rude awakening by the sudden burst of this unprecedented bubble that would make 1929 a cake walk. 

Disclosure: At the time of this writing, author and EconMatters do not have position in the aforementioned stocks.  Views and opinions are author's own.

© EconMatters.com All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle


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11712363
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712348/kazakhstan-cuts-rate-50-bps-open-about-further-cuts Mon, 15 Jan 2018 14:35:11 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712348/kazakhstan-cuts-rate-50-bps-open-about-further-cuts <![CDATA[Kazakhstan cuts rate 50 bps, open about further cuts]]>        Kazakhstan's central bank lowered its base rate by 50 basis points to 9.75 percent, saying this was  "based on the lower level of the actual inflation rate by the end of 2017 in contrast to the forecasted trajectory, the estimates of further deceleration of the inflationary processes, the continuing weak recovery of the domestic demand, and also the favorable trends in the external markets."
       The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) cut its rate by 175 basis points last year and has now cut it by 725 points since embarking on an easing cycle in May 2016.
        The NBK left open the possibility of further rate cuts, saying this would depend on global financial markets, a stabilization of the positive trends in the domestic economy and inflation.
        The central bank said monetary conditions remain neutral in light of an expected deceleration of inflation, with the current rage ensuring that inflation will ease to the bank's target of 5-7 percent, equal to Kazakhstan's long-term potential growth rate.
         In its monetary policy guidelines from December the NBK lowered its inflation target for 2018 to 5-7 percent from 6-8 percent. By end-2019 the NBK targets inflation of 4-6 percent and then by end-2020 inflation of below but close to 4.0 percent.
        Kazakhstan's inflation rate eased to 7.1 percent in December, below the expected 7.5-7.7 percent, from 7.3 percent in November and 7.7 percent in October. The decline was helped by low volatility of the exchange rate of the tenge along with a decline in petrol prices and slower growth in durable goods.
        Disinflationary tendencies are expected to persist until the end of this year and next year although inflation could rise in the first quarter of this year due to changes in some tariffs.
       However, the central bank said this would not require "corrective measures to tighten the monetary policy" as these changes from the supply side, which doesn't react to NBK's policy.
       Oil-exporting Kazakhstan, which stretches from the Caspian Sea to Mongolia, has a recent history of currency volatility and in August 2015 the central bank was forced to abandon its dollar peg policy as the tenge plunged in response to the fall in crude oil prices.
       After sliding from May through October 2017, the tenge has risen in the last two months, helped by the central bank's statement on Oct. 9 that it would sell more than US$1 billion from the assets of the National Fund - known as a rainy day fund - on the domestic market.
       In addition, the NBK's chairman, Daniyar Akishev, was also quoted as saying the state pension fund may also sell some foreign currency. The central bank manages both funds.

       Today the tenge was trading at 328.9 to the U.S. dollar, up 1.2 percent this year and up 2.4 percent since the start of 2017.



      The National Bank of Kazakhstan issued the following statement:

"The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to reduce the base rate to the level of 9.75% with a corridor of +/-1%. The decision on the reduction was based on the lower level of the actual inflation rate by the end of 2017 in contrast to the forecasted trajectory, the estimates of the further deceleration of the inflationary processes, the continuing weak recovery of the domestic demand, and also the favorable trends in the external markets.

The trend of the further easing of the monetary policy conditions will depend on the situation in the world markets and in the countries - main trade partners, stabilization of the positive trends in the domestic economy, which will determine the accordance of the forecasted inflation with that of the actual.

The annual inflation in December 2017 has amounted to 7.1%, which is significantly lower than the expected level of 7.5-7.7%. The deceleration of the inflation rate was caused by the stabilization of the price dynamics in the markets of some goods and services, specifically in the nonfood product markets. In December 2017 the petrol price has decreased after the growth in the autumn months. In relation to the low consumer demand, the slower growth of the durable goods prices is being observed. The price growth of the food products and services reflects the historical dynamics and in general matches the forecasts. The low volatility of the tenge exchange rate has also made a positive contribution to the deceleration of the annual inflation.

It is expected that in the medium-term (until the end of the current year and in the next year) disinflationary tendencies will persist. However in the short-run period (in the first quarter of 2018) the tariffs for paid services of the monopoly enterprises will become an existing risk for the annual inflation rate to sustain on the same level or even to increase to some extent. Though, their influence on the inflation is estimated as limited and does not require the corrective measures to tighten the monetary policy conditions since the risks of inflation may be released on the supply side, which does not depend on the NBK’s policy.

The households’ perception of the prices is getting better. In 2017 according to the surveys of the households, the share of responders, which believed that the prices have been increasing more rapid than earlier in the last 12 months, has decreased from 59.8% in December 2016 to 52.1% in December 2017. The quantitative assessment of the inflationary expectations of the households for a year ahead has decreased from 7.6% in December 2016 to 7.1% in December 2017.

Regarding the demand, the growth deceleration of the costs on the final consumption is being observed. It is stipulated by the decrease of the households’ income in the real terms, which also limits the consumer price growth.

The external conditions are favorable. Since the end of October the oil prices get steadily formed on the level above 60 US dollars per barrel. Continuation of the OPEC+ agreement about the oil production cuts while keeping the current quota in November 2017 reduces the risks of the significant oil price drop. Also, the world food prices index in December has declined in comparison to the previous month by 3.3%, and the expectations of the world output growth in some agriculture markets in 2018 ensures maintaining the current level of prices. The improvement of the economic situation and the moderate rate of inflation in the countries – main trade partners, which all together with the other factors will make a disinflationary impact on the consumer prices in Kazakhstan.

In spite of the base rate reduction, the monetary policy conditions remain neutral in a context of the expected deceleration of the inflation rate. The current level of the base rate in the real terms ensures maintaining the target level of the inflation in 2018 (5-7%) and corresponds to the long-term potential level of the economic growth.

The next decision on the base rate will be announced on March 5, 2018 at 17:00 Astana time."

      www.CentralBankNews.info


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11712348
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712343/this-week-in-monetary-policy-kazakhstan-canada-south-korea-indonesia-turkey-south-africa Sun, 14 Jan 2018 02:05:19 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712343/this-week-in-monetary-policy-kazakhstan-canada-south-korea-indonesia-turkey-south-africa <![CDATA[This week in monetary policy: Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey & South Africa]]>
    This week (January 14 through January 20) central banks from 6 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, the rate one year ago, and the country’s MSCI classification.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.

WEEK 3
JAN 14- JAN 20, 2018:
COUNTRY             DATE               RATE           LATEST              YTD            1 YR AGO       MSCI
KAZAKHSTAN 15-Jan 10.25% 0 0 12.00%          FM
CANADA 17-Jan 1.00% 0 0 0.50%          DM
SOUTH KOREA 18-Jan 1.50% 25 0 1.25%          EM
INDONESIA 18-Jan 4.25% 0 0 4.75%          EM
TURKEY 18-Jan 8.00% 0 0 8.00%          EM
SOUTH AFRICA 18-Jan 6.75% 0 0 7.00%          EM


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11712343
http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712338/update-2018-global-central-bank-monetary-policy-calendar Sat, 13 Jan 2018 23:59:14 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712338/update-2018-global-central-bank-monetary-policy-calendar <![CDATA[UPDATE - 2018 Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Calendar]]>      (Following item is updated with the central banks of Indonesia, Israel, Kyrgyz Republic, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey)

     Herewith the 2018 calendar for meetings by central bank committees that decide monetary policy.
    This following table includes scheduled meetings for more than 35 of the world's central banks. In the event that meetings by monetary policy committees take place over several days, the date listed below is for the final day of the meetings when decisions are normally announced.
    Central Bank News updates the calendar regularly as some central banks have yet to release their meeting schedule for 2018. Other central banks only release tentative schedules and then finalize their calendar as the meeting nears.

    The latest version of the calendar can always be accessed by clicking here.
    Work is underway to expand the number of central banks covered, including expanding the existing inflation targets table, and global interest rates table. You may replicate the tables in part or in full only if you link to Central Bank News.
               DATE   FX CODE  COUNTRY CENTRAL BANK
        JANUARY 
8-Jan     RON Romania National Bank of Romania
9-Jan     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
10-Jan     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
10-Jan     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
11-Jan     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
11-Jan     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
15-Jan     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
17-Jan     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
18-Jan     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
18-Jan      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
18-Jan     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
18-Jan     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
22-Jan     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
23-Jan     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
23-Jan     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
25-Jan     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
25-Jan     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
25-Jan     NOK Norway Norges Bank
25-Jan     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
25-Jan     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
29-Jan     AOA Angola Bank of Angola
29-Jan     COP Colombia Central Bank of Colombia 
30-Jan     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
30-Jan     MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova
31-Jan     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
31-Jan     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
31-Jan     USD United States Federal Reserve
31-Jan     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        FEBRUARY
1-Feb     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
6-Feb     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
7-Feb     INR India  Reserve Bank of India 
7-Feb     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
7-Feb     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
7-Feb     RON Romania National Bank of Romania
7-Feb     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
8-Feb     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
8-Feb     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
8-Feb     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
8-Feb     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
8-Feb     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
9-Feb     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
13-Feb     BWP Botswana Bank of Botswana
13-Feb     NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia
13-Feb     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
14-Feb     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
14-Feb     SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank
14-Feb     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
14-Feb     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
15-Feb      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
15-Feb     AZN Azerbaijan Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic
15-Feb     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
16-Feb     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
22-Feb     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
22-Feb     MZN Mozambique Bank of Mozambique
23-Feb     COP Colombia Central Bank of Colombia 
26-Feb     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
26-Feb     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
27-Feb     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
27-Feb     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
27-Feb     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
28-Feb     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
28-Feb     GMD Gambia  Central Bank of the Gambia 
28-Feb     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
      MARCH
1-Mar     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
5-Mar     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
6-Mar     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
7-Mar     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
7-Mar     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
7-Mar     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
7-Mar     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
8-Mar     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
8-Mar     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
8-Mar     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
9-Mar     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
13-Mar     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
14-Mar     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
14-Mar     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
15-Mar     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
15-Mar     NOK Norway Norges Bank
20-Mar     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
20-Mar     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
20-Mar     COP Colombia Central Bank of Colombia 
21-Mar     USD United States Federal Reserve
21-Mar     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
22-Mar     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
22-Mar     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
22-Mar     TWD Taiwan Central Bank of the Rep. of China (Taiwan)
22-Mar      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
22-Mar     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
23-Mar     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
26-Mar     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
26-Mar     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
27-Mar     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
28-Mar     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
28-Mar     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
29-Mar     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
29-Mar     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
29-Mar     TTD Trinidad and Tobago Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
30-Mar     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
30-Mar     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        APRIL 
3-Apr     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
4-Apr     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
10-Apr     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
11-Apr     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
11-Apr     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
12-Apr     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
12-Apr     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
12-Apr     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
12-Apr     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
12-Apr     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
16-Apr     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
16-Apr     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
16-Apr     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
18-Apr     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
19-Apr      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
24-Apr     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
24-Apr     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
25-Apr     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
26-Apr     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
26-Apr     SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank
26-Apr     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
27-Apr     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
27-Apr     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
30-Apr     BWP Botswana Bank of Botswana
30-Apr     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
30-Apr     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        MAY  
1-May     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
2-May     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
2-May     USD United States Federal Reserve
3-May     NOK Norway Norges Bank
3-May     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
8-May     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
10-May     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
10-May     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
10-May     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
10-May     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
10-May     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
11-May     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
16-May     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
16-May     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
16-May     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
16-May     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
17-May      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
17-May     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
17-May     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
21-May     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
22-May     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
22-May     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
24-May     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
24-May     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
24-May     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
28-May     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
28-May     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
30-May     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
31-May     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
31-May     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
31-May     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        JUNE   
4-Jun     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
5-Jun     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
6-Jun     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
7-Jun     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
7-Jun     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
7-Jun     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
12-Jun     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
13-Jun     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
13-Jun     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
13-Jun     USD United States Federal Reserve
13-Jun     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
14-Jun     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
14-Jun     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
15-Jun     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
15-Jun     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
19-Jun     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
19-Jun     BWP Botswana Bank of Botswana
19-Jun     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
20-Jun     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
20-Jun     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
21-Jun     TWD Taiwan Central Bank of the Rep. of China (Taiwan)
21-Jun     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
21-Jun     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
21-Jun     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
21-Jun     NOK Norway Norges Bank
21-Jun     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
25-Jun     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
26-Jun     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
28-Jun     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
28-Jun     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
28-Jun      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
28-Jun     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
29-Jun     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
29-Jun     BGN Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank 
29-Jun     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        JULY  
3-Jul     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
3-Jul     SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank
4-Jul     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
9-Jul     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
9-Jul     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
10-Jul     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
11-Jul     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
11-Jul     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
11-Jul     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
12-Jul     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
12-Jul     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
12-Jul     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
12-Jul     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
19-Jul      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
19-Jul     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
23-Jul     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
24-Jul     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
24-Jul     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
24-Jul     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
24-Jul     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
25-Jul     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
26-Jul     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
26-Jul     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
27-Jul     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
31-Jul     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
31-Jul     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        AUGUST  
1-Aug     USD United States Federal Reserve
1-Aug     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
2-Aug     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
2-Aug     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
3-Aug     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
7-Aug     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
7-Aug     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
8-Aug     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
9-Aug     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
9-Aug     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
9-Aug     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
9-Aug     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
14-Aug     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
16-Aug     NOK Norway Norges Bank
16-Aug      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
16-Aug     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
21-Aug     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
21-Aug     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
23-Aug     BWP Botswana Bank of Botswana
27-Aug     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
29-Aug     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
29-Aug     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
30-Aug     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
31-Aug     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
31-Aug     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        SEPTEMBER
3-Sep     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
4-Sep     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
4-Sep     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
5-Sep     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
5-Sep     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
5-Sep     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
5-Sep     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
6-Sep     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
6-Sep     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
11-Sep     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
13-Sep     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
13-Sep     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
13-Sep     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
13-Sep     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
14-Sep     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
18-Sep     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
19-Sep     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
19-Sep     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
19-Sep     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
20-Sep     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
20-Sep     NOK Norway Norges Bank
20-Sep     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
24-Sep     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
24-Sep     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
25-Sep     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
25-Sep     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
26-Sep     USD United States Federal Reserve
27-Sep     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
27-Sep     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
27-Sep     TWD Taiwan Central Bank of the Rep. of China (Taiwan)
27-Sep     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
27-Sep      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
27-Sep     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
28-Sep     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
28-Sep     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        OCTOBER
2-Oct     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
3-Oct     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
3-Oct     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
3-Oct     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
4-Oct     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
5-Oct     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
8-Oct     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
8-Oct     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
9-Oct     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
11-Oct     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
15-Oct     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
16-Oct     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
18-Oct     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
18-Oct     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
22-Oct     BWP Botswana Bank of Botswana
23-Oct      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
23-Oct     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
24-Oct     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
24-Oct     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
25-Oct     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
25-Oct     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
25-Oct     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
25-Oct     NOK Norway Norges Bank
25-Oct     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
26-Oct     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
31-Oct     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
31-Oct     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
31-Oct     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        NOVEMBER 
1-Nov     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
6-Nov     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
7-Nov     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
8-Nov     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
8-Nov     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
8-Nov     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
8-Nov     USD United States Federal Reserve
8-Nov     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
13-Nov     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
14-Nov     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
14-Nov     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
15-Nov     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
15-Nov      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
15-Nov     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
15-Nov     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
20-Nov     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
22-Nov     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
26-Nov     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
26-Nov     GHS Ghana Bank of Ghana
26-Nov     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
27-Nov     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
29-Nov     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
30-Nov     KRW South Korea Bank of Korea
30-Nov     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.
        DECEMBER 
3-Dec     KZT Kazakhstan National Bank of Kazakhstan
4-Dec     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
4-Dec     BWP Botswana Bank of Botswana
4-Dec     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
5-Dec     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
5-Dec     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
6-Dec     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
11-Dec     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
12-Dec     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
12-Dec     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
12-Dec     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
13-Dec     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
13-Dec     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
13-Dec     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
13-Dec     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
13-Dec     NOK Norway Norges Bank
13-Dec     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
13-Dec     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
13-Dec     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
14-Dec     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
14-Dec     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
18-Dec     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
18-Dec     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
19-Dec     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
19-Dec     USD United States Federal Reserve
20-Dec     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
20-Dec     TWD Taiwan Central Bank of the Rep. of China (Taiwan)
20-Dec      IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
20-Dec     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
20-Dec     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
24-Dec     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
25-Dec     ARS Argentina Central Bank of Argentina
27-Dec     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
28-Dec     LKR Sri Lanka  Central Bank of Sri Lanka 
31-Dec     DOP Dominican Republic Central Bank of the Dominican Rep.

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712333/peru-lowers-rate-another-25-bps-may-cut-further Fri, 12 Jan 2018 03:05:20 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712333/peru-lowers-rate-another-25-bps-may-cut-further <![CDATA[Peru lowers rate another 25 bps, may cut further]]>        Peru's central bank continued its easing campaign by cutting its monetary policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3.0 percent, repeating its recent guidance that it is paying close attention to inflation and would consider further changes to its policy stance if necessary.
       The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has now cut its rate by 125 basis points since embarking on an easing cycle in May 2017 and said today's rate cut took into account the continued fall in inflation and forecasts that it is expected to continue to decline in the first months of 2018.
        Moreover, inflation expectations are continuing to decline and public spending in the final quarter of 2017, particularly investment, grew less than forecast so the gap between actual economic activity and the potential level of growth increased.
        Peru's inflation rate fell to 1.37 percent in December from 1.54 percent in November for the lowest rate since May 2010 and in the bottom of the central bank's target range of 1-3 percent. Excluding food and energy the inflation rate eased to 2.15 percent from 2.23 percent.
        Expectations for inflation in 12 months fell to 2.30 percent in December from 2.48 percent in November, the bank said.
        Peru's inflation rate spiked early last year to 3.97 percent in March following heavy flooding that killed more than 100 people, destroying farm lands and crops. Since then inflation has continued to decline.


       The Central Reserve Bank of Peru issued the following statement:

 
"1. The Board of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru approved to lower the monetary policy interest rate from 3.25 to 3.0 percent. This decision takes into account the following factors:
i. Inflation in December continued decreasing and showed a rate in the lower band of the inflation target range for the second consecutive year due mainly to the reversal of the supply shocks as well as due to a level of economic activity lower than the potential growth rate. Inflation is projected to continue declining in the first months of 2018 and to converge thereafter to 2.0 percent. Moreover, trend inflation measurements continue decreasing and are expected to remain close to the middle of the target range during this year;
ii. Expectations of inflation in 12 months continued declining and fell from 2.48 percent in November to 2.30 percent in December 2017;
iii. In the fourth quarter of 2017, public expenditure, particularly investment expenditure, grew less than forecast, as a result of which the gap between economic activity and its potential level of growth increased, and
iv. The world economy continues to show positive indicators, with positive signals in the prices of commodities and in capital flows to the emerging economies.

2. The Board pays close attention to new data on inflation and inflation determinants to consider the convenience of making additional adjustments in the Central Bank’s monetary policy stance should it be necessary.

3. Recent indicators of inflation and activity reflect the following: i. Inflation in December recorded a rate of 0.16 percent, as a result of which the year-toyear inflation rate fell from 1.54 percent in November to 1.36 percent in December. Inflation without food and energy showed a rate of 0.29 percent, as a result of which the year-to-year rate fell from 2.23 percent in November to 2.15 percent in December, also within the target range. ii. The indicators of business expectations showed more moderate levels in December, but remain on the optimistic side.

4. The Board of the Central Bank also approved to lower the annual interest rates on lending and deposit operations in domestic currency (not included in auctions) between BCRP and the financial system, as specified below:
i. Overnight deposits: 1.75 percent.
ii. Direct repos and rediscount operations: i) 3.55 percent for the first 15 operations carried out by a financial institution in the last 12 months, and ii) the interest rate set by the Committee of Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations for additional operations to the 15 first operations carried out in the last 12 months.
iii. Swaps: a commission equivalent to a minimum annual effective cost of 3.55 percent.

5. The Monetary Program for the month of February will be approved on the Board Meeting of February 8, 2018."

     www.CentralBankNews.info


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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712328/serbia-maintains-rate-still-sees-easing-inflation-in-h1 Thu, 11 Jan 2018 13:15:09 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712328/serbia-maintains-rate-still-sees-easing-inflation-in-h1 <![CDATA[Serbia maintains rate, still sees easing inflation in H1]]>      Serbia's central bank kept its key policy rate at 3.50 percent, as expected, confirming that it still expects inflation to move within its target tolerance band although it is likely to drop below the midpoint in the first half of this year due to the comparison with petroleum products that saw one-off hikes last year.
      The National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which cut its late twice last year by a total of 50 basis points, added that domestic demand will work in the opposite direction on inflation, with today's policy decision reflecting expected changes in inflation along with the impact of past policy easing.
      Serbia's inflation rate was steady at 2.8 percent in November and October, and was assessed to rise to 3.0 percent in December, the midpoint of the bank's target range.
       At its December meeting the central bank's executive board confirmed its inflation target of 3.0 percent, with a tolerance range of plus/minus 1.5 percentage points, until 2020.
       The NBS, which in recent weeks has been supporting the dinar in the foreign exchange market, said uncertainty in international financial market continues to prevail due to the divergence of monetary policies by leading central banks and this is affecting global capital flows towards emerging market economies, including Serbia.
       The prices of commodities, especially oil that has risen in recent months, also adds uncertainty.
       The dinar has strengthened against the euro since March 2017 and the NBS was reported to have sold euros against the dinar on Monday and in the final week of 2017 around 118.50 and 118.15.
        Today the dinar was trading at 118.8 to the euro, up 3.6 percent since the start of 2017. The NBS keeps the dinar in a managed float against the euro.

   
        The National Bank of Serbia issued the following statement:


'At today’s meeting, the NBS Executive Board voted to keep the key policy rate on hold, at 3.5%.
In making such decision, the Executive Board had in mind the expected movement in inflation and its factors in the coming period, and the expected effects of past monetary policy easing. 
As assessed by the Serbian Statistical Office, in December 2017 inflation measured 3% year-on-year, i.e. the target midpoint. Inflation expectations of the financial and corporate sectors are anchored within the target tolerance band.
The NBS Executive Board expects inflation to continue to move within the target tolerance band of 3.0±1.5%. In the first half of this year, inflation is likely to move below the target midpoint, reflecting the low base for prices of petroleum products and other products which recorded one-off hikes in early 2017. The expected rise in domestic demand will work in the opposite direction.
The NBS Executive Board carefully monitors developments in the international environment, primarily developments in the global financial market and world prices of primary commodities, which mandate caution. Uncertainty in the international financial market over the divergence of monetary policies of the leading central banks – the Fed and the European Central Bank, still prevails, which may affect global capital flows towards emerging economies, including Serbia. In addition, uncertainty surrounds also the movements of world prices of primary commodities, especially world oil prices, which recorded growth in the previous months. Nevertheless, the Executive Board points out that the resilience of our economy to potential negative impacts from the international environment has increased, owing to the strengthening of domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and a more favourable outlook for the period ahead. 
The next rate-setting meeting will be held on 8 February 2018."




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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712323/poland-holds-rate-as-h1-growth-seen-down-from-h2-2017 Wed, 10 Jan 2018 21:15:43 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712323/poland-holds-rate-as-h1-growth-seen-down-from-h2-2017 <![CDATA[Poland holds rate as H1 growth seen down from H2 2017]]>       Poland's central bank left its benchmark reference rate at 1.50 percent, as widely expected, saying the country's economy will continue to face favorable conditions in coming quarters although growth in the first half of 2018 will probably be lower than in the second half of 2017.
      The National Bank of Poland (NBP), which has maintained its rate since March 2015, also reiterated its recent guidance that the current level of interest rates are conducive to keeping the country's economy on a path of sustainable growth while inflation is expected to remain close to the bank's inflation target over the forecast horizon.
       Despite an easing of Polish inflation to 2.0 percent in December from 2.5 percent in November, some economists are looking to a rate hike as soon as in the first half of this year as inflation begins to accelerate on the back of continued solid economic growth.
       But in his December press conference, NBP Governor Adam Glapinski restated that rates are likely to be kept on hold until the end of this year as the rise in the exchange rate of the zloty has acted as monetary tightening.
       In today's statement the monetary council acknowledged that wages are growing faster than in previous quarters but core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remains low.
       Core inflation rose to only 0.9 percent in November from 0.8 percent in October, well below the central bank's target of 2.50 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
       Wages grew by an annual rate of 6.5 percent in November, down from 7.4 percent in October.
       In November the central bank raised its 2018 inflation forecast to 1.6-2.9 percent from July's
forecast of 1.1-2.9  percent but cut the 2019 forecast to 1.7-3.7 percent from 2.3-3.6 percent.
       For 2017 the NBP forecast inflation of 1.9-2.0 percent compared with a previous forecast of 1.6-2.3 percent.
      "In Poland, incoming data point to continued good economic conditions," the NBP said, driven by consumer demand on the back of rising employment and wages, benefits and good sentiment.
       Polish exports are also growing while public sector investment has also recovered.
       Poland's Gross Domestic Product expanded by an annual 4.9 percent in the third quarter, up from 4.0 percent in the second quarter.
       In November the central bank forecast 2017 growth of 3.8-4.6 percent compared with its July forecast of 3.4-4.7 percent. For 2018 the central bank forecast growth of 2.8-4.5 percent, up from 2.5-4.5 percent while the 2019 forecast was unchanged at 2.3-4.3 percent.
       The zloty has risen steadily against the euro in 2017 and rose further today when it was trading at 4.18, unchanged this year but up 5.3 percent since the start of 2017.


      The National Bank of Poland issued the following statement:



"The Council decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged:
▪ reference rate at 1.50%; ▪ lombard rate at 2.50%;
▪ deposit rate at 0.50%;
▪ rediscount rate at 1.75%.

The global economic conditions continue to improve. Data in the euro area signal further economic recovery, driven by an improvement in the labour market conditions, very good sentiment of economic agents, and a stronger world trade growth. Also in the United States economic conditions remain favourable. In China, in turn, incoming data indicate a slight slowdown in GDP growth.
Despite ongoing global recovery, inflation abroad remains moderate, on the back of persistently low domestic inflationary pressure in many countries. At the same time, prices of certain commodities, including oil, have risen in recent months.
The European Central Bank keeps interest rates close to zero, including the deposit rate below zero, while still purchasing financial assets. The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates in December and continues to shrink its balance sheet.
In Poland, incoming data point to continued good economic conditions. Growth continues to be driven primarily by consumer demand, supported by rising employment and wages, disbursement of benefits and very good consumer sentiment. This is accompanied by a recovery in investment, mainly in the public sector. Growth in economic activity is also supported by strong external demand, reflected in significant exports growth.
Annual consumer price growth declined and stands at a moderate level. At the same time – although wage growth is faster than in the previous quarters – core inflation net of food and energy prices remains low.
In the Council’s assessment, favourable economic conditions in the Polish economy will continue in the next quarters. Yet, GDP growth will probably be lower than in the second half of 2017. Taking into account the current information, the Council judges that inflation will remain close to the inflation target over the projection horizon. As a result, the current level of interest rates is conducive to keeping the Polish economy on the sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability. "

     www.CentralBankNews.info



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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712318/argentina-cuts-rate-75-bps-as-disinflation-seen-continuing Wed, 10 Jan 2018 05:35:07 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/CentralBankNews/read/11712318/argentina-cuts-rate-75-bps-as-disinflation-seen-continuing <![CDATA[Argentina cuts rate 75 bps as disinflation seen continuing]]>       Argentina's central bank lowered its monetary policy rate by 75 basis points to 28.00 percent to prevent "a contractionary bias of monetary policy" as the disinflationary process is persisting despite expectations that inflation in December will reflect a strong rise in the regulated prices of gas and electricity.
      The rate cut by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) comes after it raised its rate three times in 2017 by a total of 400 basis points to curb rising inflation as the government of Mauricio Macri continues to cut a wide range of subsidies to boost economic growth and reduce the fiscal deficit.
      The BCRA said core inflation in the last three months was close to 18 percent in annualized terms and data showed this favorable dynamic persisted through December and in the first days of January, necessitating a cut in the reference rate to prevent a contractionary bias in monetary policy.
      Argentina's headline inflation rate eased to 22.4 percent in November from 22.7 percent in October while core inflation eased to 21.2 percent from 21.7 percent, according to the BCRA. 
      The central bank has emphasized in recent months that inflation has broken the level of persistence that was seen from mid-2016 to mid-2017 but monetary policy maintained a strong contractionary bias to avoid any spillover from higher regulated prices to core inflation.
       The BCR said it would be "cautious" in adapting monetary policy to the new path of disinflation and "a moderation in the contractionary bias can only be sustained over time to the extent that the evolution of disinflation is compatible with the trajectory sought."
        It added it would conduct monetary policy to reach its target of 15 percent inflation in 2018.
       In late December Argentina's government pushed back its aim to lower inflation to 5 percent by one year to 2010 and raised its 2018 target to 15 percent from 8-12 percent. For 2019 the inflation target is 10 percent.
      The BCRA said core inflation in the last three months was close to 18 percent in annualized terms and data showed this favorable dynamic persisted through December and in the first days of January, necessitating a cut in the reference rate to prevent a contractionary bias in monetary policy.
       BCRA said inflation was expected to rise to 17.4 percent from 16.6 percent due to a change in regulated prices while core inflation was expected to remain stable at 14.9 percent.
       Expectations for 2019 headline inflation rose to 11.6 percent from 11.3 percent while expectations for core inflation fell to 10.0 percent from 10.4 percent. For 2020 the forecast was 8.0 percent.
        Earlier this week Argentina returned to the international debt market by placing $9 billion in bonds, with demand more than double than the amount issued.
        Last month the International Monetary Fund forecast 2018 inflation of 16.3 percent - above the government's 15.0 percent forecast - 2019 inflation of 11.8 percent and 10.0 percent in 2020 while growth is seen at 2.5 percent.

      www.CentralBankNews.info

       
      

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http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11712311/blockchain-makeover-of-a-dog Tue, 09 Jan 2018 01:13:38 +0000 http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/asiablues/read/11712311/blockchain-makeover-of-a-dog <![CDATA[Blockchain Makeover of a Dog]]>

By EconMatters
Monday, January 8, 2018

Blockchain can sure blow smoke in your face mistaking a dog for a super model, at least in the case of Long Island Ice Tea Corp (LTEA) now rebranded to Long Blockchain (LBCC) on Nasdaq.

What would you do if you are the CEO of a Nasdaq-listed company getting a “deficiency notice” from Nasdaq threatening to delist your company unless the market value rose above $35 million for 10 business days in a row?  Long Island Ice Tea did receive such warning in October.

 Typically, once a deficiency notice has been sent from Nasdaq, a company has only 90 days to comply with the continued listing standards. That means LTEA needs to shape up or gets shipped out by this month. Worry not, LTEA has found the right open-sesame password to dodge the delisting bullet.

Blockchain, Ice Teas and Lemonades

As the company’s name implies, Long Island Ice Tea Corp. is a beverage company focused on non-alcoholic iced teas and lemonades based in Farmingdale, New York. The company was at risk of being booted off Nasdaq before being rescued by a simple name change last month.



Yes, all the company did was to change its name to Long Blockchain Corp. (LBCC) on Dec. 21 with some vague statement that Long Blockchain is in the “preliminary stages of evaluating specific opportunities” and that it plans to continue to focus on the beverage business (if that makes any sense). Its stock price almost tripled in one day.

At the time, the company has no agreements with any blockchain entities or even in negotiation with one, not to mention the illogic of an ice tea company “diversifying” into blockchain technology. However, investors are blinded by the buzz word “Blockchain” and LBBC market cap has stayed above the $35 million threshold required by Nasdaq since the name change on Dec. 21.

Blockchain Makeover of a Dog

Typically, a delisting warning from an exchange usually means this company is in a downward spiral either due to some fundamental and economic difficulties and/or in a cyclical down market for that particular industry sector.

As Bloomberg reports, LTEA has posted consecutive quarterly losses “for years”. It had a $3.9 million deficit in 3Q 2017 and only two customers made up 42% of its $1.6 million in net sales. It is easy to see how it got to this delisting predicament.

The latest company statement on Friday Jan. 5 was that it was buying 1,000 bitcoin-mining machines and offering as many as 1.6 million shares. The big IF is that “The purchase may not go through if Long Blockchain doesn’t get enough funding”. It also said in a filing Friday “Our management has relatively little experience in the blockchain technology industry.”

According to Bloomberg, one of the company’s founders and majority shareholders is “known for lavish parties and dating supermodels” with odd connections to super model Heidi Klum, the Kennedy family, and America Apparel, Inc. (which filed bankruptcy in 2015.) That same majority shareholder also settled with the U.S. SEC in 2001 for failure to disclose certain insider trading transactions.

A Dog Is a Dog, Never a Super Model

Just like the gold rush, all these do not seem to matter a bit to investors in the bitcoin euphoria. The irrational enthusiasm from investors seem to suggest as long as there’s “intention” to dabble in blockchain technology, it is enough to keep throwing money at an ice tea company with poor core business prospect and management. Sorry, I don’t think Heidi or even the entire Kennedy family can save this dog.

The worse thing is that there’s a string of penny stock companies are able to cash in quickly on the bitcoin craze including some Cigar manufacturers, sports-bra and juice makers. One Long Blockchain executive reportedly said last month that the decision to pivot to blockchain technology was “a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

 LBBC stock went from $2.44 to almost $7 in one day after the name change, and closed at $4.85 today. I think it looks more like a once-in-a-life-time opportunity to pump and dump a dog penny stock to as many bitcoin-crazed investors as possible.  Caveat emptor, let the buyer beware!

Disclosure: The author and EconMatters have no position in aforementioned stocks. The views and opinions expressed in this article are author's own. 

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