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Economic Calendar: Monetary Policy Mayhem

October 31, 2010 by Econ Grapher   Comments (0)

Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 1st of November 2010. This week is monetary policy mayhem week! The main even will be the announcement from the US FOMC as it announces its decision on monetary policy, and more importantly its decision on quantitative easing - this will be closely watched by the world. And then there's also the Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of India, and of course the Bank of Japan - who rescheduled its meeting to follow the Fed's announcement. Other than the monetary policy mayhem there's the usual PMI's from China and the US, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

(More commentary follows the table)

Day Time (GMT) Code Event/Release Forecast Previous
SUN 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (SEP) 9.6 15.5
SUN 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (SEP) 7.4 17.9
SUN 23:50 JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (SEP) ¥710.0B ¥86.0B
MON 09:00 EUR EU Industrial New Orders (MoM) (AUG) 2.4% -1.8%
MON 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (SEP) 4.30M 4.13M
MON 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) 4.1% 7.6%
TUE 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q A) 0.4% 1.2%
TUE 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q) A 2.4% 1.7%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (AUG) 148.91
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case Shiller 20 City (MoM) SA (AUG) -0.20% -0.13%
TUE 13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (AUG) 2.20% 3.18%
TUE 14:00 USD Consumer Confidence (OCT) 49.5 48.5
TUE 21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (OCT 24)
TUE EUR German CPI (YoY) (OCT P) 1.3% 1.3%
TUE 00:30 AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (3Q) 2.9% 3.1%
WED 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (SEP) 2.0% -1.5%
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (SEP) 300K 288K
WED 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP) 4.2% 0.0%
WED 20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision (OCT) 3.00% 3.00%
WED JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (OCT 28) 0.10% 0.10%
THU 04:00 CNY Leading Index (SEP) 101.91
THU 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change (OCT) -30K -40K
THU 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 23) 455K 452K
THU 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (OCT 16) 4430K 4441K
THU 21:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP) 3.15B
THU 21:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP) 3.59B
THU 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PPMI (OCT) 49.5
THU 23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP) -0.6%
THU 23:30 JPY Jobless Rate (SEP) 5.1% 5.1%
THU 23:30 JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP) -1.5%
THU 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP P) -0.6% -0.5%
THU 23:50 JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP P) 12.3%
THU CNY MNI Business Condition Survey (OCT) 69.54
FRI 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (SEP) 10.1% 10.1%
FRI 12:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (AUG) 0.3% -0.1%
FRI 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q A) 2.2% 1.7%
FRI 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (OCT F) 68.0 67.9

As noted the monetary policy mayhem begins on Monday with the RBA announcing its decision - and it will be a close call, but likely a hold. Then on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of India is likely to add another 25bps to its interest rate as inflation heats up. Then of course on Wednesday the Fed makes the announcement the markets have all been waiting for - the quantitative easing campaign, by now it's almost a foregone conclusion, so it would be a major disappointment to the markets if there were no such announcement. Then on Thursday the ECB and BoE meet, it's a given they'll hold interest rates, but there could be remote scope for the BoE to expand its asset purchase program. And then the wildcard comes - Japan; the BoJ strategically brought forward its next meeting to just after the Fed's announcement - so it wouldn't be unreasonably to expect some kind of counter moves if the US dollar gets devalued to any significant degree.

And of course the October PMI results will start rolling out this week, with China taking the stage first, and consensus is for little change, but this is a figure to watch closely, it has begun to rebound but let's see if its noise or a trend. Then the US will release its figures, and consensus is for a slight drop, which should be no surprise - the inventory cycle has basically run its course, and consumers aren't racing to the shops, so it's likely US manufacturing will be on the go-slow.

The other major data piece will be US nonfarm payrolls for October, which will probably show the same story of a negative or lackluster headline result due to government related tightening and census firing, but the private payrolls will probably show a rise. Also in employment data is Canada, expected to show a small improvement, and New Zealand, also expected to show a small improvement. The other interesting data bits will be US consumer credit data for Sep (likely to be little changed), Australian house prices, PMI indices from a few other countries, and EU PPI.

So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

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+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification

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