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December 2016

2016 Year End Performance Review (Video)

December 31, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We go over our 2016 Market Returns, Discuss the best and worse performing market asset classes, and look at Hedge Fund outperformers through the third quarter in this video. Some crazy political outcomes in 2016, wonder what surprises are in the cards for 2017?

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There Has Been No Real Rotation From Bonds to Stocks (Video)

December 30, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We enter 2017 flat in all accounts for tax and accounting purposes, and this is the last trading day of 2016, we discuss the Bond to Stock Rotation Myth in this video with our as usual original correct perspective. There is so much Central Bank Money in both Bonds & Stocks; they are both still Asset Bubbles.

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NVDA, Cotton, Orange Juice, Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa, Lumber (Video)

December 29, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We do some general market commentary at the start of the video before reviewing the "Soft" Commodities, and throw in some Dollar Index talk as well. Basically, the play in a lot of these softs was to wait for the pullback in the market at the beginning of the year, having a lot of spare cash, and come in and buy them all at the February and March lows for a nice extended move up before profit taking ensued in these markets.

Some of the best trading and investing advice is to be patient and sit with a lot of cash in your portfolio for the really good market entry points where the selling or buying is way overdone, and then come in and put that money to work, and scoop up some really high conviction trades/investments from a positive expected probability value standpoint.

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Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, Lean Hogs, Class III Milk (Video)

December 28, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We delve into the agriculture space, specifically the Cattle Industry looking at how the technicals are shaping up for the sector in this video. There are still some Meat eaters left in this world.

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No Hope for Humanity

December 27, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the real problem facing global growth right now, the massive government debt and credit bubble in this video. Republicans and Democrats keep Spending and Borrowing like there is No Tomorrow.

The global financial numbers don`t make sense, governments and central banks cannot add to their balance sheets in an infinite manner, and expect global growth to buck the current downtrend. Moreover, who is left to buy now, where is the incremental buyer in the financial system? We have a Global Financial Ponzi Scheme, the numbers just don`t add up, financial gimmicks with no basic structural finance soundness underneath, are a house made of cards and doomed to crash, this is where we are at currently in global finance. The Global Financial System is the Real Big Short, it is the Biggest Short we have ever seen in the history of Financial Markets!

We have met the endgame, the can has been kicked as far down the road, the inevitable rubber meets the road reality day is here, now pay up. You cannot lower interest rates any lower, you cannot borrow any more, you cannot add any more to central bank`s balance sheets, governments cannot borrow anymore money through unsound deficit financing. Now rates are going up, inflation is going up, as there has been too much money printing, currency devaluation, and central bank inspired fiat capital created chasing too few real goods in the global economy. And Moreover, you cannot "Trade War" your way to prosperity through these populous movements which are a reflection of the reality on the ground of the Global Zero Sum Game of a few Winners and a lot of Net Losers. The reality is that at this point structural changes need to be made that respects finance principles and basic capitalistic models.

Since politicians and central bankers are too weak and incompetent to do anything but kick the can down the road creating further debt, credit and asset bubble "Days or Reckoning" the only true Reality Check and form of discipline comes via a Global Recession and Financial Market Crash. This is the Forced Reset Option that occurred in the second half of 2007!

Who is going to regulate Central Banks and Governments because they have done far more harm to the stability of capitalism and financial markets than any investment bank, hedge fund, or financial institution in the history of financial markets. Until we have systemic changes in many areas, and no I don`t think Donald Trump is the savior, just like President Obama wasn`t, we are going to struggle mightily as a society both locally and globally. At this point, there is still no light at the end of the tunnel, There is No Hope for Humanity!

This basic point, and it is a finance and capitalistic point is that if you cannot afford to provide a good job and future for your children, then you don`t have kids, period. Until this basic economic fact is adhered to, the entire financial system is in trouble, because the numbers just don`t add up anymore. And advances in technology are only going to make this finance law of nature worse, and providing a basic income for a bunch of "idle population" because there are no jobs for them, is just more unsound Finance Can Kicking.

The basic laws of Finance and Capitalism have to be respected, the finance numbers have to add up or make sense. If the world continues to create more people than there are good jobs, the finance equation continues to break down, and humanity continues down its current path of systemic breakdown. We are basically still pretty stupid animals, and unless we "smarten up" considerably there is No Hope for Humanity, and we are in for a lot of 'Finger Getting Burned on the Stove Learning Events' and 'Finance Principle Disciplining' as a recurring theme for Humanity. The question is will Humans ever "Smarten Up" and Learn from these past mistakes?

And by No Hope, I mean from the Global Zero Sum Game of Winners and Losers, a few Global Winners and most of the World as Net Losers depending how exceptionally well they are able to navigate the multitude of financial, economic and politic landmines of incompetent structural policies by governments, central banks and religious leaders around the world.

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Market Crash 2017 (Video)

December 26, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We have a Stock Market Bubble, excessive valuations, investors are complacent, everyone runs for the exits simultaneously, there are abundant catalysts out there in the world, the Crash occurs over next 12 months.

Donald Trump will preside over the biggest global market crash in the history of financial markets. Just due to where asset prices are set up thanks to six major central banks ZIRP INSANITY since 2008. Asset prices have so much and so far to fall just to get back to the pre-financial crisis HIGHS of 2007, which were also a bubble it should be mentioned, and crashed subsequently in half from those levels.

People and investors are so complacently clueless right now it just amazes me, there is no hope for humanity right now at this rate of stupidity. Forget trying to get to MARS, learn how to balance your checkbook, and not try crazy ZIRP experiments for a starter.

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The Mexican Peso in 2017 (Video)

December 25, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Mexican Peso against the US Dollar in this video, looking at the history, fundamentals and technicals of the Mexican economy and its currency. Amazing the effects of a US Election cycle would have on Mexico and its economic prospects in 2016 and beyond.

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Merry Christmas, Everyone!

December 25, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

This is a pic I took tonight while driving around River Oaks and Galleria areas in Houston.  Wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

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The Gold Market for 2017 (Video)

December 24, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the fundamental and technical drivers for the Gold Market Price Action in 2017 in this video. There are a lot of factors to evaluate in the Gold Trade for 2017! And I didn`t even touch on Capital control issues going on in both China and India, which should be considered as well for as we have seen in Bitcoin strength lately, every action has an equal and opposite reaction in some related market. I am sure Gold could be the beneficiary of some of these policies down the line as people lose confidence in government policy agendas in controlling the tax base, and stemming the outflow of capital from various markets.

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ETFs versus Active Investing Debate (Video)

December 23, 2016 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We delve into the debate with our take on the downside of passive investing in ETFs, this exacerbates volatility in markets. The main difference is that we had mutual funds and then stock picking, now we have mutual funds, and ETFs, with very little stock picking in financial asset evaluation.

This in and of itself is a very bad practice for many reasons that I will avoid discussing here, but mainly every asset should be independently analyzed thoroughly. This basically means that financial markets have been reduced to fund flow investing, the degree to which this is Ponzi scheme musical chair gambling seems less destructive as long as assets are moving up, but when the worm turns which this very style of investing makes an absolute certainty, it not only destroys capital forever, it destabilizes financial markets in the process, and in essence breaks financial markets.

When the ZIRP Central Bank inspired Stock Market Bubble bursts ETFs will get their fair share of the blame for capital destroying practices, and bad investment decisions made on the behalf of market participants. Investment Capital is going to be destroyed like never before in the history of financial markets when the bubble bursts, and those in ETFs on average will lose far more than active managers, or even average stock pickers.

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