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EconMatters's Blog

EconMatters - Global Economic and Market Analysis That Matters

The Basic Income Debate (Video)

May 29, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the idea of Basic Income in this video, we run the numbers from an economic and market perspective, and the numbers aren`t pretty given the population , inflation, debt and government spending trends. We cannot afford a basic income solution without a complete overhaul of our current highly inefficient use of capital, i.e., government spending budget, current and future allocations and commitments, along with waste, inefficiencies, outdated and unnecessary programs, and corruption. The idea of equality of outcome sets the stage for future disappointment along the lines of the goal of creating a wealth effect through artificial policy intervention by Central Banks.

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The Russian Ruble (Video)

May 29, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Russian Ruble Currency in this market video against the US Dollar, Silver, Gold and Bitcoin with different timeframes going back over a five year period. It paid to be bold when everyone else was a scared little rabbit and buy the Ruble when things appeared very bleak in the throes of an oil and commodity crash along with several incursions into Ukrainian territory, and all the Geo-political fallout, international sanctions and economic turmoil that followed.

It shows how capable Russia Finance chiefs were and the Ministry of Finance in reacting to difficult times indeed because overall, when we consider all that Russia was up against, they handled this crisis rather well. Raising interest rates to extraordinary levels seemed to be the main focal point of the strategy to fight capital flight and stem the currency collapse of the Ruble, and it worked by my analysis. In short buying the Russian Ruble when there was the proverbial 'blood in the streets' was a bold, counter-trend play that turned out to be highly profitable for traders.

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The Oil Market (Video)

May 28, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Oil Market from a fundamental, technical, economical and trading perspective in this comprehensive video on the current state of the oil market after the latest OPEC Meeting and extension of the Price Cut Strategy. The Economics of the market still don't match the Fundamentals of the oil market. The global oil market doesn`t have a place for US Production to be producing 9.5 Million Barrels per Day, which we are on trend and course for reaching in the near term. Ultimately, Oil Prices need to crash, and firms go out of business losing their principal operations in a liquidation event for economic discipline to reassert itself in the oil market. Moving up in short term on back of the OPEC Production Cuts Extension and the stronger demand environment of the Summer Driving Season may provide a nice setup for the next leg down in the oil market.

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The Bond Market Crash Takes Down The Entire Financial System (Video)

May 27, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Bond Market in this video, focusing on our calculations of comparative real yields from Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland for the 10-Year Bond offering. The last thing Central Banks need is real inflation, i.e., organic inflation that shows up in the hard data as the core reading. Any reversion to the historical mean in interest rates and subsequent 10-Year Bond yields and prices blows up the entire financial system based upon our calculations. The contagion and derivative effects of an adjustment just back to the 10 year high in these bond instruments puts the entire financial community off sides by such a degree that no amount of capital reserves or central bank tools or government intervention will stem the complete system default. Excuse my language here, but the Central Banks really Fucked Up this time!

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Precious Metals Market Analysis (Video)

May 26, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Precious Metals Market in this video noting some interesting Price Action in this asset class over the last week, and over the course of the rate hiking schedule of the last nine months. The Dollar is finishing at the highs for the week, and the Precious Metals still have a noticeable bid this week as well. We will pay attention next week for follow through on this recent trend as we close out the month of May in Financial Markets.

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General Market Commentary 5-25-2017 (Video)

May 25, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the major markets in this general market commentary video covering stocks and bonds all the way to copper and gold markets. Now that the shorts have been squeezed, what`s next for equities? I don`t really expect much more out of this move as there just isn`t any more fuel to take the S&P 500 much higher than 2425 at the highest, and we may already have put in the high today at 2417.75, and start moving lower in front of a certain rate hike next month at the June FOMC Meeting. We sure didn`t blow through 2400 prices like we blew through 2300 prices, so even the bulls know they are in rarefied air way up here at these levels. Expect hawkish comments out of the ECB, FOMC, BOE and BOJ over the next two months to put a damper on "irrational exuberance" in equities.

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Natural Gas Market Analysis 5-24-2017 (Video)

May 24, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Fundamentals and Technicals of the Natural Gas Market in this video, reviewing last week`s EIA Natural Gas Report, and talking about the June contract expiration, in line with what the charts are telling us to pay attention to over the next several weeks in this commodity. It is getting to be time for a breakout in this range bound market we have had the last couple of trading months.

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The Bear Market That Will Cause Fund Mangers To Sell (Video)

May 23, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss the Theory of Debt Monetization, the Wealth Effect, Central Banks in relation to the current Bull Market going back into historical records to examine how we think this all plays out when the cycle changes into an outright Bear Market Correction. Most Fund Mangers will not sell in the first year of the Bear Market!

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The Anatomy of a Downtrend (Video)

May 22, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss Price Action in a downtrend in this market video, describing what is really going on behind the scenes, why price behaves the way it does, and how to avoid one of the biggest traps in trading Price Action. Never Buy a Pullback in a Downtrend!

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Trading or Investment Slumps - The Best Cure (Video)

May 21, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters


We discuss how best to deal with Trading or Investment slumps in financial markets in this video, when you always seem to be Zigging when the Market is Zagging, and vice versa in the throes of a batting slump. There usually is a psychological component to losing consistently in the market if you were at one time a profitable trader. But ultimatetly it comes down to Direction and Timing, get those two things right, and the psychological aspects often become less significant in the losing equation.

Never underestimate the power of Momentum, it is the reason coaches call time outs in sports. Likewise pay attention to Behavioral Ruts, as humans are often very routine based thinking creatures that park in the same place everyday at work, etc. and can get into Bad Trading Behaviors or Patterns that they repeat over and over and need to be broken through a change in Trading Conditioning.

By the way, there are even Trading Algos set up to trick Traders that fall into bad Trading Patterns to bite on false breakouts, top tick retracement moves in a downtrend, or get too enthusiastic at trading a Defined Trend. Trading it can be said is one of those professions that is the hardest easiest way to make a living in the world.

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