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China cuts rate 25 bps after inflation falls to historic lows

February 28, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

     China's central bank cut its benchmark lending and deposit rates by a further 25 basis points to counter the dampening impact on economic activity from the rise in real interest rates after economic restructuring and the sharp fall in international commodity prices pushed down consumer price inflation to historic lows.
     The People's Bank of China (PBOC), which last cut its lending rate by 40 basis points on Nov. 22, 2014, cut the one-year lending rate to 5.35 percent from 5.60 percent while the one-year deposit rate was cut to 2.5 percent from 2.75 percent.
    In addition, the PBOC continued the process of allowing prices to become more market-oriented by raising the maximum that financial institutions can offer for deposits to 1.3 times the benchmark deposit rate from 1.2 times. In November the PBOC raised the limit from a previous 1.1 times.
    The central bank described the higher deposit rate limit as an "important step" in its market-oriented reform the would help expand the floating range of interest rates on deposits, allow financial institutions further room to set their prices independently, improve the level of financial services along and improve the role of market interest rates in allocating resources.
    China's consumer price inflation rate fell to 0.8 percent in January from 1.5 percent in December while the core inflation rate fell to 1.2 percent from 1.3 percent.
    Economists had expected the PBOC to cut rates at some point and on Feb. 10 the bank made it clear that was ready to fight any further economic weakening due to weakening external demand.
    China's Gross Domestic Product expanded by only 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 from the third quarter for annual growth of 7.3 percent. Full-year 2014 growth was 7.4 percent, down from 2013's 7.8 percent, below the government's 7.5 percent target and the weakest growth in 24 years.
    On Feb. 4 the PBOC cut its reserve requirement on big banks by 50 basis points to 19.50 percent, freeing up 600 billion yuan that was held as reserves, and economists are looking for further cuts.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

 

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Angola maintains rates as pace of credit rise eases

February 27, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Angola's central bank maintained its policy rates, including the benchmark Basic Interest Rate (BNA) at 9.0 percent, citing a slight decline January inflation along with a lower expansion of credit and a 1.27 percent average depreciation in the kwanza's exchange rate in January from December.
    The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which last changed its policy rate in October 2014 when it raised the rate by 25 basis points, noted the annual inflation rate in January declined by 0.04 percentage points to 7.44 percent from December.
    The stock of credit to the economy rose by an annual 14 percent in January to 3.394 billion kwanza, down from an increase of 17.14 percent in December.
    The kwanza started depreciating against the U.S. dollar in September 2014 and has continued to ease this year, like most other currencies. The BNA said the average exchange rate of the kwanza to the dollar amounted to 104.171 in January.
    Today the kwanza was quoted at 106.35 to the dollar, down 3.3 percent this year.
    Angola's Gross Domestic expanded by 4.4 percent in 2014 from 2013 according to preliminary estimates from the BNA, but the oil-dependent economy is expected to slow down this year due to the fall in oil prices.
    Last month Angola'sgovernment slashed $14 billion from planned spending.
    Oil accounts for around half of Angola's economic output, 80 percent of tax revenues and 90 percent of export earnings, according to press reports.

   
    The National Bank of Angola issued the following statement:

"The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Angola (CPM) met on February 27, at its forty-first session, the second of the year 2015. 

In order to take monetary policy measures that contribute to the maintenance of price stability in the national economy, the evolution of inflation was analyzed, the real economy, fiscal and monetary accounts as well as the latest information on the international economic situation, including the SADC region. The analysis was based on data for the month of January 2015. I. EVOLUTION OF MONETARY ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL NATIONAL
  • In January 2015, the monthly inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index of Luanda was 0.72%, down 0.04 percentage points compared to the same period of 2014. The inflation last twelve months stood at 7.44%, down 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous month; 
  • Class 01 - "Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages", with 0.20 percentage points, was the largest contributor to inflation in the month, despite its weight in the CPI to be steadily decreasing;  
  • Class 07 - "Transportation" and the Class 12 - "Goods and Services" with 1.59% and 1.46% respectively, were the most varied;
  • In the same period, among the other provinces, the subject of official collection of the general price level, by the Office
  • The LUIBOR Overnight stood at 6.16% per annum and with maturities of 3 and 12 months in 8.29% and 9.75% per year, respectively;    
  • According to preliminary data, the stock of credit to the economy reached a volume of Kz 3,394,000 million, representing a cumulative increase of about 14% in the last 12 months; 
  • In January, commercial banks purchased foreign currency in the USD 1,800 million value in the foreign exchange market, of which USD 1,549 million at the BNA and the rest to their customers. 
  • In the primary foreign exchange market, the average exchange reference rate depreciated by 1.27% from the previous month, having stood at 104.171 kwanzas per dollar of the United States of America.

II. MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE DECISIONS

Based on the analysis of the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators and their perspective, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep:  

  • The Basic Interest Rate - Rate BNA - 9% per year;
  • The Interest Rate Standing Facility Liquidity Lending at 9.75% per annum;
  • The Interest Rate Standing Facility Liquidity Absorption at 0% per annum.

The next regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will take place on March 30, 2015 ."

    www.CentralBankNews.info


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Central Bank News Link List - Feb 27, 2015: Turkish c.bank head says to stay put after lira hits record low

February 27, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

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2015 Global Central Bank Calendar - updated with Fiji, Albania

February 27, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Following is the 2015 calendar for meetings by central bank committees that decide monetary policy.
    The table includes scheduled meetings for more than 35 of the world's central banks. In the event that meetings by monetary policy committees take place over several days, the date listed below is for the final day when decisions are normally announced.
   The calendar is updated regularly to reflect the latest information as some central banks have yet to release their meeting schedule for 2015. Other central banks only release tentative schedules and then finalize their calendar as the meeting nears.
    Work is underway to expand the number of central banks covered, including expanding the existing inflation targets table, and global interest rates table. You may replicate the table in part or in full only if you link to this page.

                      Central Bank News - 2015 Global Central Bank Calendar



        MARCH 
3-Mar     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
4-Mar     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
4-Mar     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
4-Mar     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
4-Mar     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
5-Mar     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
5-Mar     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
5-Mar     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
11-Mar     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
12-Mar     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
12-Mar     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
12-Mar     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
12-Mar     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
13-Mar     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
17-Mar     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
17-Mar     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
17-Mar     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
18-Mar     USD United States Federal Reserve
19-Mar     NOK Norway Norges Bank
18-Mar     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
19-Mar     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
19-Mar     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
23-Mar     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
24-Mar     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
24-Mar     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
24-Mar     NGN Nigeria Central Bank of Nigeria
25-Mar     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
25-Mar     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
26-Mar     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
26-Mar     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
26-Mar     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
26-Mar     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
26-Mar     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
26-Mar     MDL Moldova National Bank of Moldova
27-Mar     XCD Eastern Caribbean Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
27-Mar     TTD Trinidad and Tobago Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
30-Mar     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
        APRIL 
7-Apr     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
8-Apr     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
9-Apr     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
9-Apr     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
9-Apr     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
9-Apr     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
14-Apr     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
14-Apr     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
15-Apr     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
15-Apr     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
15-Apr     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
15-Apr     NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia
16-Apr     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
21-Apr     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
22-Apr     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
23-Apr     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
27-Apr     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
27-Apr     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
28-Apr     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
29-Apr     SEK Sweden The Riksbank
29-Apr     USD United States Federal Reserve
29-Apr     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
29-Apr     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
30-Apr     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
30-Apr     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
30-Apr     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
30-Apr     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
30-Apr     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
        MAY  
5-May     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
6-May     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
6-May     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
6-May     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
7-May     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
7-May     NOK Norway Norges Bank
7-May     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
11-May     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
11-May     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
12-May     ZMK Zambia Bank of Zambia
13-May     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
14-May     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
14-May     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
14-May     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
15-May     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
19-May     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
19-May     NGN Nigeria Central Bank of Nigeria
20-May     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
21-May     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
22-May     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
25-May     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
25-May     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
26-May     HUF Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank
27-May     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
27-May     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
28-May     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
        JUNE   
2-Jun     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
3-Jun     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
3-Jun     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
3-Jun     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
4-Jun     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
4-Jun     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
10-Jun     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
10-Jun     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
11-Jun     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
11-Jun     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
11-Jun     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
11-Jun     CLP Chile Central Bank of Chile
11-Jun     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
11-Jun     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
12-Jun     UAH Uganda Bank of Uganda
15-Jun     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
16-Jun     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
17-Jun     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
17-Jun     USD United States Federal Reserve
17-Jun     NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia
18-Jun     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
18-Jun     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
18-Jun     NOK Norway Norges Bank
19-Jun     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
22-Jun     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
23-Jun     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
23-Jun     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
24-Jun     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
25-Jun     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
25-Jun     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
25-Jun     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
29-Jun     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
        JULY  
1-Jul     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
2-Jul     SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank
7-Jul     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
8-Jul     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
9-Jul     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
9-Jul     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
9-Jul     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
9-Jul     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
9-Jul     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
14-Jul     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
15-Jul     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
15-Jul     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
21-Jul     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
21-Jul     NGN Nigeria Central Bank of Nigeria
23-Jul     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
23-Jul     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
23-Jul     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
23-Jul     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
27-Jul     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
27-Jul     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
28-Jul     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
29-Jul     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
29-Jul     USD United States Federal Reserve
30-Jul     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
30-Jul     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
31-Jul     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
        AUGUST  
4-Aug     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
5-Aug     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
5-Aug     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
6-Aug     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
6-Aug     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
7-Aug     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
13-Aug     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
13-Aug     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
12-Aug     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
13-Aug     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
13-Aug     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
18-Aug     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
18-Aug     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
19-Aug     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
19-Aug     NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia
24-Aug     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
24-Aug     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
25-Aug     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
26-Aug     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
27-Aug     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
        SEPTEMBER
1-Sep     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
2-Sep     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
2-Sep     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
2-Sep     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
3-Sep     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
3-Sep     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
3-Sep     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
3-Sep     SEK Sweden Sveriges Riksbank
9-Sep     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
10-Sep     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
10-Sep     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
10-Sep     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
11-Sep     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
11-Sep     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
10-Sep     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
15-Sep     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
16-Sep     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
17-Sep     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
17-Sep     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
17-Sep     USD United States Federal Reserve
17-Sep     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
22-Sep     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
22-Sep     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
22-Sep     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
22-Sep     NGN Nigeria Central Bank of Nigeria
23-Sep     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
23-Sep     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
24-Sep     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
24-Sep     NOK Norway Norges Bank
24-Sep     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
24-Sep     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
24-Sep     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
27-Sep     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
28-Sep     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
30-Sep     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
        OCTOBER
6-Oct     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
6-Oct     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
7-Oct     JPY Japan Bank of Japan
8-Oct     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
15-Oct     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
15-Oct     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
15-Oct     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
15-Oct     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
16-Oct     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
20-Oct     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
21-Oct     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
21-Oct     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
21-Oct     NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia
22-Oct     EUR Euro area  European Central Bank
26-Oct     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
26-Oct     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
27-Oct     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
28-Oct     SEK Sweden The Riksbank
28-Oct     USD United States Federal Reserve
29-Oct     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
29-Oct     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
29-Oct     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
30-Oct     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
        NOVEMBER 
3-Nov     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
4-Nov     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
4-Nov     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
4-Nov     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
4-Nov     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
4-Nov     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
5-Nov     NOK Norway Norges Bank
5-Nov     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
5-Nov     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
5-Nov     MYR Malaysia Central Bank of Malaysia
12-Nov     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
12-Nov     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
12-Nov     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
12-Nov     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
17-Nov     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
17-Nov     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
19-Nov     ZAR South Africa South African Reserve Bank
23-Nov     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
24-Nov     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
24-Nov     NGN Nigeria Central Bank of Nigeria
25-Nov     BRL Brazil Central Bank of Brazil
25-Nov     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
26-Nov     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
30-Nov     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
        DECEMBER 
1-Dec     AUD Australia Reserve Bank of Australia
2-Dec     CAD Canada Bank of Canada
2-Dec     PLN Poland National Bank of Poland
3-Dec     MXN Mexico Banco de Mexico
3-Dec     EUR Euro area European Central Bank
9-Dec     ISK Iceland Central Bank of Iceland
9-Dec     NAD Namibia Bank of Namibia
10-Dec     FJD Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji
10-Dec     GBP United Kingdom Bank of England
10-Dec     KRW Korea Bank of Korea
10-Dec     PEN Peru Central Reserve Bank of Peru
10-Dec     NZD New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand
10-Dec     CHF Switzerland Swiss National Bank
10-Dec     RSD Serbia National Bank of Serbia
11-Dec     RUB Russia Bank of Russia
15-Dec     SEK Sweden The Riksbank
15-Dec     HUF Hungary Central Bank of Hungary
16-Dec     ALL Albania  Bank of Albania
16-Dec     GEL Georgia National Bank of Georgia
16-Dec     CZK Czech Republic Czech National Bank
16-Dec     THB Thailand Bank of Thailand
16-Dec     USD United States Federal Reserve
17-Dec     PHP Philippines Central Bank of Philippines
17-Dec     IDR Indonesia Bank Indonesia
17-Dec     EGP Egypt Central Bank of Egypt
17-Dec     NOK Norway Norges Bank
22-Dec     MAD Morocco Bank of Morocco 
22-Dec     TRY Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey
24-Dec     UAH  Ukraine National Bank of Ukraine
28-Dec     ILS Israel Bank of Israel
28-Dec     KGS Kyrgyzstan National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic


Central Bank News makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information above at the time of publication. However, as schedules and bank policies change, we cannot guarantee its accuracy but will update the table when new information becomes available. If you have any corrections, please contact us.
    You may replicate the table above in full but under the strict condition that you cite Central Bank News as the source, and if online, provide a link back to www.centralbanknews.info


    www.CentralBankNews.info

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Kenya holds rate, monitors FX rate and inflation

February 26, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Kenya's central bank maintained its benchmark Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 8.50 percent, noting it was keeping a close eye on any impact on the shilling's exchange rate and domestic inflation from possible volatility in global foreign exchange markets in response to the divergent path of monetary policy in major advanced economies.
    The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), which has kept its benchmark rate steady since May 2013, said the favorable impact of lower oil prices helped support price stability, confidence in the country's economy remains strong and the shilling has continued to benefit from strong investor confidence that was boosted by the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) approval of a precautionary facility.
    On. Feb. 2 the IMF's executive board approved a stand-by arrangement that amounted to a total of US$688 million that will allow the country's government access to funds to cushion any external shocks to the economy while economic reforms are being carried out.
    The CBK said its stock of usable foreign exchange reserves amounted to US$7.224.19 billion as of Feb. 26, down from $7.424.7 billion at the end of December, but still a level that provides a "robust cushion" along with the IMF facility against any shocks that could trigger excess exchange rate volatility.
    The shilling started depreciating against the dollar in October 2013 and was close to hitting 92 to the dollar - a level not seen since November 2011 - in late January before it reversed course. Today the shilling was quoted at 91.5 to the dollar, down about one percent since the start of the year.
    Kenya's inflation rate rose slightly to 5.6 percent in February from 5.5 percent in January, a rise the central bank had expected.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

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Egypt holds rate, low oil counters supply bottlenecks

February 26, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Egypt's central bank maintained its key policy rates, noting that upside risks to inflation from domestic supply shocks are lessened by the impact of lower oil prices on import prices, including the downward revision in international food prices.
    The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), which cut rates by 50 basis points in January, maintained its overnight deposit rate at 8.75 percent, the overnight lending rate at 9.75 percent, the rate on its main operation at 9.25 percent and the discount rate at 9.25 percent.
    Egypt's consumer price inflation - which jumped to 11.04 percent in July 2014 after a government cut in fuel subsidies - continued its downward trend in January, declining to 9.7 percent from 10.13 percent in December.
    But the CBE noted that on a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.99 percent due to adjustments in administered prices and supply bottlenecks from the distribution of butane cylinders.
    The CBE noted that Egypt's economic output "jumped significantly" in the first quarter of the 2014/15 financial year - the third calendar quarter - with Gross Domestic Product up by an annual 6.8 percent, the highest annual growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2007/08.
    It attributed higher output to continuous growth in manufacturing and an expansion of tourism after several quarters of contraction. Investment improved for the third consecutive quarter.
    However, the CBE repeated that the challenges facing the euro area and softer growth in emerging markets could pose downside risks to economic growth despite the contribution from the expansion of the Suez Canal.

  
    The Central Bank of Egypt issued the following statement:

"In its meeting held on February 26, 2015, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the CBE's main operation unchanged at 8.75 percent, 9.75 percent, and 9.25 percent, respectively. The discount rate was also kept unchanged at 9.25 percent.
Headline CPI increased by 0.99 percent (m/m) in January compared to a decline of 0.07 percent (m/m) in December. The annual rate declined to 9.66 percent in January from 10.13 percent in December, supported by the favorable base effect from last year. The bulk of the monthly developments came on the back of the administered price adjustments and supply bottlenecks related to the distribution of butane cylinders. On the other hand, core CPI increased by 0.52 percent in January compared to 0.3 percent in December. The annual rate continued to ease registering 7.06 percent in January following 7.69 percent in December. Upside risks on the inflation outlook from domestic supply shocks are largely mitigated by contained imported inflation, against the background of lower oil prices and the consequent downward revision in international food price forecasts.
Meanwhile, real GDP jumped significantly in 2014/15 Q1, registering at 6.8 percent the highest annual growth rate since 2007/08 Q4. This comes after the 2013/14 fiscal year real GDP growth rate recorded 2.2 percent. Notwithstanding the support stemming from the base effect, the expansion in economic activity during 2014/2015 Q1 came on the back of the continuous growth in the manufacturing sector and the expansion of tourism activities after several quarters of contraction. This came despite the continuous weakness in the extraction sector. In the meantime, investment continued to improve for the third consecutive quarter. Looking ahead, while investments in domestic mega projects such as the Suez Canal are expected to contribute to economic growth, the downside risks that surround the global recovery on the back of challenges facing the Euro Area and the softening growth in emerging markets could pose downside risks to domestic GDP.
At this juncture, the MPC judges that the key CBE rates are currently appropriate given the balance of risks surrounding the inflation and GDP outlooks.
The MPC will continue to closely monitor all economic developments and will not hesitate to adjust the key CBE rates to ensure price stability over the medium-term. "

    www.CentralBankNews.info

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Moldova maintains rate, still sees inflation above limit

February 26, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Moldova's central bank maintained its key rate, including the base rate at 13.5 percent, with its policy stance still determined by the forces of inflationary pressures stemming from a depreciation of the leu currency and the economic weakness of its main trading partners.
    The National Bank of Moldova, which raised its rate by 500 basis points at an extraordinary board meeting on Feb. 17, repeated it still expects consumer price inflation to temporarily breach the upper limit of its target range due to the impact of currency depreciation on import prices and utility tariffs.
    The National Bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 5.0 percent, within a lower limit of 3.5 percent and an upper limit of 6.5 percent, and said its decision to hold its rate steady was aimed an anchoring inflation expectations, which it fears will rise, at that level.
    The headline inflation rate in Moldova - a former Soviet state located between Romania to the east and Ukraine to the north, south and east - was steady at 4.7 percent in January and has remained within the central bank's target range since February 2012.
    In January, the central bank forecast an average inflation rate of 5.8 percent this year and 6.1 percent in 2016.
    After tumbling by by 16.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2014, the leu continued to drop until Feb. 10 when it fell to over 19.0 to the dollar, down over 30 percent since the start of 2014 and down 18 percent this year alone.
    But since Feb. 10 the leu has stabilized and risen slightly, hitting 18.4 to the dollar today, in response to rate hikes, low liquidity of foreign exchange and a new prime minister.
    Remittances from foreign workers to Moldova was down by an annual 29.2 percent in January, slightly better than a 30 percent decline in December, while exports and imports in 2014 fell by 3.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, compared with 2013, the bank said.
    However, industrial production and the transport of goods increased by 7.3 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, in 2014, the central bank said.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

   
   

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The Fed Waited Too Long: Hear Comes Inflation

February 26, 2015 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

CPI Core Shows Inflation

The drop in energy prices, had the knee jerk reaction that we were in a deflationary spiral, again markets get many things wrong on first blush. The drop in energy prices is inflationary in the overall economy, and today`s CPI report showed what a sophisticated analysis would forecast regarding inflation and the role that low energy prices play in the overall inflation equation. We are going to have a transfer from the food and energy components which rely heavily on energy costs into the core inflation reading as consumers have more money in their pockets for true discretionary spending, and all these components` prices are going to rise in the CPI Inflation Index.

Wages, Wages, Wages

What should really be worrying for the Fed is that wages have been spiking under the radar for 2014, up ahead of the overall inflation metric, and leading the way on inflation, and 2015 has seen an even greater surge in wage inflation, again you might not want what you wish for when it actually comes to fruition, with wages surging the Fed now has no choice but to raise rates, and raise them fast!

 
Walmart: Canary in the Coal Mine

It should have been a warning sign to the Fed when Walmart of all people voluntarily raises wages across the board for its employees, they aren`t doing this out of the kindness of their heart. If one takes a look at the JOLTS numbers, and the competition for employees in a tightening labor market, wages are going to have to rise to compete for the available labor pool. 2015 is going to be the year of the wages, and inflation is going to blow through the Fed`s 2% target towards the end of the year once the bad energy comp components come out of the data set.

 
Lower Energy Costs are Inflationary to the Overall Economy

The drop in energy made everyone complacent on inflation, and everyone just assumed that inflation was never going to rear its ugly head again, but that was a mistake because we have had some elevated inflation numbers in the past 20 years with much less money printing, much higher Fed Funds Rates, and much lower overall energy costs coursing through the entire economic system. So when you look at the employment numbers for 2014 and 2015 it was only a matter of time before core inflation started picking up, stealthy at first due to the drop in energy prices, but slowly gaining steam under the radar, and the longer the Fed waits on raising rates the more they are going to have to raise rates the back half of 2016.

 
Follow the CPI: This is where the Demand is for Employees

This inflation surge is going to be led by wage inflation, which is to be expected given the tightening labor market, as lower fuel costs serve as a major economic stimulus net in the overall economy; leading to demand for workers in all the areas of the economy where this newfound stimulus is going, namely the services, manufacturing, and entertainment sectors of the economy.

 
Retail Never Voluntarily Raises Wages Across the Board

By the time the markets and the Fed realize that inflation is a problem it is too late, today`s Core CPI reading ought to be the second warning signal for the Fed, the first being Walmart raising wages across the board for employees, that just doesn`t happen in my lifetime for the retail sector, they go out of their way to keep employee wages down as a cost component because margins are so tight, management is even incentivized to keep employee costs extremely low in many retail environments.

The fact that Walmart raised wages in the manner that it did ought to have alerted the Fed that something is going on in the underlying employment dynamics of the labor market that they aren`t addressing with their current ZIRP stance. By the time they realize that the labor market is so tight that employers are voluntarily raising wages across the board it is far too late, you are officially behind the curve as the surge in wage inflation is signaling loud and clear.

 
The Inflationary Cycle & the Vicious Cycle of Surging Wages in a Tight Labor Market

 
We were all expecting inflation to be problem with ZIRP, everything goes in cycles, wages were the last component to gain any footing in the inflation equation, but once they get started it becomes a self-reinforcing dynamic where higher wages lead to employees quitting lower paying jobs to move to higher paying jobs, employers then start competing for employees leading to more wage increases, all of which leads to a competitive fight over the existing available labor pool where the employees have the upper hand, something that hasn`t occurred for 8 plus years of the latest economic cycle. Well Janet Yellen you finally got your request granted in terms of wanting to see some wage inflation, one should be cautious what one wishes for because now it means you have no further excuse for not raising rates ASAP!

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Egypt maintains rates, to issue statement later

February 26, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Egypt's central bank maintained its key policy rates, including the benchmark overnight deposit rate, and will issue a statement by its Monetary Policy Committee later today.
    The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) held its overnight deposit rate steady at 8.75 percent, the overnight lending rate at 9.75 percent, the rate on its main operation at 9.25 percent and the discount rate at 9.25 percent.
    The CBE surprised most economists last month by cutting its rates by 50 basis points as it considered the upside risks to inflation to be contained by lower oil and food prices while there were risks to the country's economic growth from the challenges facing the euro area and softer growth in emerging market economies.
    The CBE raised its rate by 100 basis points in July 2014 following a government cut in fuel subsidies that pushed up fuel prices sharply and thus inflation.
    Egypt's consumer price inflation rate jumped to 11.04 percent in July 2014 but has slowly declined since then, reaching 9.7 percent in January. Core inflation also fell to 7.06 percent in January from 7.69 percent in December.
    The CBE currently aims at "low rates of inflation" but has said it intends to adopt an inflation-targeting policy framework.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

 

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Central Bank News Link List - Feb 25, 2015: Israeli interest rates could go below zero–c. bank dep. governor

February 25, 2015 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

Here's today's Central Bank News' link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don't miss any important news.

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