Some impressive internals for this report are blunted because of OPEC supply finding its way to the United States. The drop in US Oil Production was noteworthy in this report.
The United States should be thinking much more strategically with their energy policy right now. Again Politicians are dropping the ball at a crucial point from an economics standpoint in the energy industry. China is taking appropriate steps to monetize the current environment, while the United States continues to be the proverbial Deer in Headlights watching an excellent opportunity to add to the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at decade low prices in the oil market slip by the wayside.
People don`t realize the magnitude of all the Oil Producing Countries with declining Production Rates, and trending the wrong direction compared with the consistent and steady rise in Global Oil Demand Growth.
The Oil Market is going to 'unbalance' in the opposite direction over the next 12 months, and start heading south fast over the next five years. The US probably needs to increase Oil Production to 12 Million Barrels per day in five years just to keep up with global oil demand, as the US is one of the few countries globally capable of increasing capacity given the resource requirements, political stability, and technological requirements necessary to invest in these capital intensive projects.
But it is going to take a much higher price for a sustained duration to get the US all the way to 12 Million Barrels per day, as much of the low hanging fruit has already been taken out of the ground so to speak.
Last week we had a bearish EIA Report and Oil moved up $3 bucks due to Fund Flows getting ahead of the fundamentals.
Australia's central bank cut its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent, a move that was expected by some economists, following an unexpected fall in first quarter inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which last cut its rate one year ago, said the subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures around the world point to a lower outlook for inflation that previously forecast.
Australia's headline inflation rate declined to 1.3 percent the first quarter of this year from 1.7 percent in the final 2015 quarter, immediately triggering speculation in financial markets that the RBA could cut rates today.
Last month the RBA had flagged that it could cut its rate if inflation didn't start to pick up, saying continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy to lend support to demand.
In contrast, the RBA did not issue a guidance about its future policy decisions today, a likely sign that it will maintain rates in coming months.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the bank's monetary policy had been accommodative for some time and low interest rate had helped support demand and the lower exchange rate of the Australian dollar had helped economic activity.
But Stevens added that "an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this," echoing his statement from last month that the central bank would be concerned about a rising exchange rate.
"In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom," Stevens said, growth should continue this year though probably at a more moderate pace than in 2015.
The RBA said it had taken "careful note of developments in the housing market," as part of its decision to cut the rate, but there are signs prices pressures are easing due to supervisory measures and the "potential risks of lower interest rates in this area are less than they were a year ago."
"Taking all these considerations into account, the Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting," Stevens said.
The core inflation rate in the first quarter of this year fell to 1.67 percent from 2.15 percent in the last quarter of 2015. The RBA targets inflation of 2 - 3 percent.
Australia's economy expanded by an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the last quarter of 2015, up from 2.7 percent in the third quarter.
After depreciating against the U.S. dollar since September 2014, the Australian dollar - known as the Aussie - has been rising since mid-January on the back of higher iron ore prices. Just over half of the world's iron ore exports come from Australia.
The slowdown in China's economy dented demand for Australian commodities and in 2015 the Aussie lost 11 percent against the dollar.
In response to the rate cut, the Aussie fell sharply to 1.323 to the dollar from 1.297 before the news, but it is still up 3.5 percent since the beginning of this year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia issued the following statement:
"At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent, effective 4 May 2016. This follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.
We look at this one time momentum stock from a mini case study perspective regarding some of the issues this company faces in trying to recover from the food safety issues of recent memory, and move forward as a growth stock for the next decade.
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The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (CBDR) left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 5.0 percent, saying this took into account that inflation is expected to converge to the lower level of its target range within the policy horizon and market expectations are around that forecast.
The CBRD, which has maintained its rate since last cutting it in July 2015, added that domestic economic activity was evolving positively and Gross Domestic Product was estimated to have expanded by an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the same as in the fourth quarter of last year.
Inflation eased to 1.59 percent in March, down from 1.74 percent in February, while core inflation was 1.52 percent, the central bank said.
The bank targets inflation of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
Colombia's central bank raised its policy rate for the eight month in a row, saying this was "to ensure that inflation converges to the target in 2017 and contributes to the reduction in the current account deficit."
The Central Bank of Colombia raised its policy rate by a further 25 basis points to 7.00 percent and has now raised it by 250 basis points since September last year when it embarked on a tightening cycle. In 2016 it has raised the rate by 125 points.
Inflation in Colombia rose to 7.98 percent in March from 7.59 percent in February to the highest rate since October 2001, with the central bank attributing the pressure on inflation to the sharp increase in food prices and the partial transfer of the devaluation of the peso to domestic prices.
At the same time, the central bank said the risk of an excessive slowdown in domestic demand remains moderate.
The central bank added that it was committed to keeping inflation and expectations anchored to its target of 3.0 percent - plus/minus 1 percentage point - recognizing that the increase in inflation is of a transitory nature.
The Central Bank of Colombia issued the following statement:
Russia's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 11.0 percent, as expected, but adopted an easing bias by saying it would "resume a gradual lowering of its key rate at one of its forthcoming board meetings" if it becomes more confident hat the inflation target will be achieved.
At its previous meeting in March, the board of the Bank of Russia had maintained a hawkish bias by saying it could keep its tight policy stance for longer than planned as there were still risks that inflation would exceed the bank's target in late 2017.
The central bank last cut its rate in July 2015 despite frequent calls for cuts to boost growth.
Russia's inflation in March continued to decelerate, falling to 7.3 percent from 8.1 percent in February for the lowest rate since April 2014 and the central bank estimated that inflation had eased further to 7.3 percent as of April 25.
The deceleration in inflation is in line with the bank's forecast of inflation dropping below 8 percent in April although inflation is likely to accelerate temporarily mid-year due to base effects.
"However, further on inflation will continue to go down," the bank said, predicting that inflation will reach about 5.0 percent in April 2017 and its 4.0 percent target in late 2017.
Earlier this month Russia's economy ministry forecast that inflation would remain above 4 percent in 2017 and 2018 though the finance minister has said talks were underway to unify inflation goals.
Despite the positive signs of falling inflation, the central bank pointed to the risk that expectations are only declining slowly, uncertainties surrounding the national budget and wages.
The central bank was also optimistic about the recovery of Russia's economy, saying it was showing a higher resistance to fluctuations in oil prices as the process of import substitution was making a positive contribution to industrial production and capacity utilization was improving.
"The on-going shifts in the economy anticipate the beginning of its recovery growth," the central bank said, adding quarterly growth rates are expected to reach positive levels in the second half of this year and early 2017.
In 2015 Russia's economy contracted by 3.7 percent and is forecast to contract around 1 percent this year.
The Russian ruble has been appreciating since mid-January and is now up by 14.3 percent this year, trading at 64.2 to the U.S. dollar today, and is now only 7 percent below the start of 2015.
The Bank of Russia released the following statement:
Fiji's central bank left its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 0.5 percent, unchanged since October 2011, saying its twin objectives remain intact and inflation remains low despite the supply-side shock from Tropical Cyclone Winston and recent flooding.
The Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF) noted that inflation in March eased to 0.8 percent from 1.2 percent in February and the forecast for end-year is around 2.0 percent, which also reflects lower fuel prices stemming from lower crude oil prices.
Foreign reserves amounted to US$1.984 billion as of April 28, slightly below $2.006 billion on March 29, but sufficient to cover 5.6 months of imports.
Barry Whiteside, central bank governor and board chairman, said in a statement Fiji's economy was still on track to achieve its seventh year of expansion, although at a slower pace than earlier expected due to the negative impact of natural disasters and weak demand from trading partners.
In January the RBF forecast economic growth this year of 3.5 percent, down from 4.0 percent in 2015 and 5.3 percent in 2014 and Whiteside has earlier said Cyclone Winston was expected to lower this growth forecast, notwithstanding the impetus from recovery activities.
Fiji was struck by Tropical Cyclone Winston on the night of Feb. 20, with wind gusts up to 325 kph (202 mph) that killed 42 people and left more than 62,000 people homeless. The government has estimated damage of 1 billion Fijian dollars, or US$460 million.
With winds of 296 kph (184 mph), Cyclone Winston was the worst cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, smashing the previous record of 178 mph set by Cyclone Zoe which hit the Solomon Islands in 2002. If Winston had occurred in the Atlantic, it would have been categorized as a Category 5 hurricane.
The Reserve Bank of Fiji issued the following statement: