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April 27, 2017 by duke100   Comments (0)

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Tunisia raises rate 50 bps as dinar falls sharply

April 27, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Tunisia's central bank raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.75 percent at an extraordinary board meeting to help ease rising inflationary pressures following a sharp fall in the dinar's exchange rate and said it was closely following those pressures so it could "undertake the appropriate actions on time."
     It was the first change in rates by the Central Bank of Tunisia (CBT) since October 2015, when the rate was lowered by 50 basis points. The bank's board met on April 25.
     The central bank also raised the minimum savings rate that banks can offer by 50 points to 4.0 percent to boost the incentive to save and thus liquidity in the financial system. Tunisia's banks are in need of liquidity given a weak level of savings in the country, the central bank said.
     The rate hike comes a week after Tunisia's finance minister said the central bank would reduce interventions in the foreign exchange market so the value of the dinar gradually declines in an effort to boost exports and lower imports, and thus reduce the trade deficit.
     But last week's sharp fall in the dinar appears to have surprised the central bank, which said economic data "in no way justify the fluctuations recorded on the exchange market," and talks between the IMF and the government "were globally positive and encouraging."
     The central bank added it did not have an exchange rate target in mind, nor was it floating the dinar but would carry out "well-calibrated interventions" to smooth our sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate while seeking to "contain the trade deficit slippage," ensure financing of imports and preserve foreign currency reserves.
     The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week released some US$319 million as part of an overall fund facility for Tunisia of some $638.5 million that is aimed at boosting economic growth and jobs at a time of high fiscal and external deficits.
     The government and IMF are also working to increase social spending and strengthening the country's social safety net to "protect the vulnerable in these challenging times," the IMF said.
     The IMF also said on April 17 that tighter monetary policy would help counteract inflationary pressures, give further flexibility to the exchange rate and narrow the trade deficit.
      On April 18 the finance minister told local radio that the central bank would reduce its interventions in the foreign exchange market while still preventing a sharp slide in the dinar and avoiding what he described as Egypt's "brutal devaluation" of its pound last year of over 30 percent.
      On April 20 and 21 the dinar fell by almost 9 percent to 2.52 to the U.S. dollar but it has rebounded this week and was trading at 2.46 today, down 6.5 percent since the start of this year.
      Tunisia's inflation rate rose to 4.8 percent in March from 4.6 percent in the two previous months while Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter of last year rose by an annual 1.1. percent, down from 1.2 percent in the third quarter.
      It its statement, the IMF said growth was expected to double this year to 2.3 percent "but will remain too low to significantly reduce unemployment, especially in the interior regions and among the youth."
     The official unemployment rate was 15.5 percent in the last quarter of 2016.

     The Central Bank of Tunisia issued the following statement:

 "The Executive Board of the Central Bank of Tunisia held on 25 April 2017 an exceptional meeting to examine the recent trends on the exchange market which recorded, over the last week, increasing pressure in line with operators’ increasing demand for foreign currency, yielding thus a sharp depreciation of the dinar, notably against the dollar and the euro.

When examining the above-mentioned trends, the Board affirmed that the objective data as well as the available economic and financial indicators can in no way justify the fluctuations recorded on the exchange market and the sharp depreciation of the dinar against the main foreign currencies, especially that the discussions that were recently held between the Tunisian Authorities and the IMF mission in the framework of the extended credit facility review, were globally positive and encouraging.
Moreover, the Board underlined that the adopted monetary and exchange policy do neither target devaluation of the national currency, nor a target exchange rate and not even a floating of the national currency, but proceeds rather through ordered, well-calibrated interventions to smooth out the sharp variations of the exchange rate while seeing to boost the exchange rate role to contain the trade deficit slippage on the one hand, and ensure financing of the necessary imports and preserve an appropriate level of foreign currency reserves on the other hand.
As for trend in prices, the Board noted that inflationary pressures post an upward trend compared to the previous months. It should be mentioned that preliminary available data indicate risks of an ongoing pressure on the short term.
When examining the bank liquidity situation, the Board pointed out that banks’ needs remain at high levels  given a weak level of national savings, and discussed as a result the means likely to boost savings in order to reduce pressure on the economy’s liquidity.
In the light of what was stated previously, and in considering the pressure recorded recently on the exchange market, following exaggerated speculative position-taking or unfounded worries, yielding liquidity shortage, the Board pointed out that the Central Bank continues to adopt the required flexibility in its monetary and exchange policy conducting in a way to ensure the market liquidity.
Meanwhile, the Board insists on the efficiency of these policies to curb the current deficit slippage and calls for rationalizing the use of foreign currency resources and refraining from all unwarranted practices which are detrimental to sound functioning of the foreign exchange market and likely to threaten its stability; which might affect more globally the macroeconomic balances.
The Board wants also to reassure both the operators and the public with respect to the pursuit of a regular functioning of the foreign exchange market and the ongoing monitoring of the Bank to ensure smooth running of transactions while maintaining the foreign currency reserves at comfortable levels.
After deliberations, and to reduce inflationary pressure risks on the one hand, and boost savings and boost liquidity on the other, the Board decided to raise the key interest rate of the Central Bank of Tunisia by 50 basis points, bringing it to 4.75%, and to increase the minimum savings remuneration rate by 50 basis points, to bring it to 4%. Hence, the Central Bank will continue to closely follow up trends in the economic situation, and particularly the inflationary pressures in order to undertake the appropriate actions on time."


Turkey holds key rate, raises lending rate to curb inflation

April 26, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Turkey's central bank left its benchmark one-week repurchase rate steady at 8.0 percent but raised its late liquidity lending rate by a further 25 basis points to 12.0 percent and held out the prospect of further rate hikes to prevent a deterioration in the inflation outlook.
     While the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has maintained its key rate since hiking it by 50 basis points in November last year, it has been tightening its policy stance by other means, such as raising other policy rates, the rate it pays on local lenders' U.S dollar reserves and required reserve ratios in a bid to boost the value of the lira and thus slow down inflation.
     But inflation jumped to 11.29 percent in March, the highest since October 2008, and the second consecutive month of double-digit inflation, well in excess of the bank's target of about 5 percent.
     The CBRT's cautious rate hike today comes a week after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, an ardent critic of high interest rates, won a referendum that grants him wider powers.
     The CBRT said food prices had led to a rapid rise in inflation and while the recent rise in risk appetite by investors may contain some of the pressure on costs, the current level of inflation risks leading to even further cost rises.
     Data showed prices of clothing and foot wear rose by 1.99 percent in March from February, followed by a 1.93 percent rise in the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages.
     Looking ahead, the central bank said it's tight monetary policy stance would continue until there is a "significant improvement in the inflation outlook" and "additional monetary tightening will be possible if needed."
     After falling sharply in the last two months of 2016, Turkey's lira has staged a slight rebound since hitting a historic low of 3.87 to the U.S. dollar in late January, helped by the central bank's various tightening measures.
    Today the lira was trading at 3.59 to the dollar, down 1.7 percent since the start of this year.

     The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey issued the following statement:

Participating Committee Members

Murat Çetinkaya (Governor), Erkan Kilimci, Emrah Şener, Murat Uysal, Abdullah Yavaş.
The Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has decided to set the short term interest rates at the following levels:
a) Overnight Interest Rates: Marginal Funding Rate has been kept at 9.25 percent and borrowing rate has been kept at 7.25 percent.
b) One-week repo rate has been kept at 8 percent,
c) Late Liquidity Window Interest Rates (between 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.): Borrowing rate has been kept at 0 percent, while lending rate has been increased from 11.75 percent to 12.25 percent.
Recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Domestic demand conditions display a moderate improvement and demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the economic activity is expected to gain further pace in the forthcoming period. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.
Cost push pressures and the volatility in food prices in recent months have led to a sharp increase in inflation. Although the recent improvement in the risk appetite contains some of the upside pressures from cost factors, current elevated levels of inflation pose risks on the pricing behavior. Accordingly, the Committee decided to strengthen the monetary tightening in order to contain the deterioration in the inflation outlook.
The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.
It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days."


Swing Trading (Video)

April 23, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We discuss the topic of swing trading in this video, along with some Market Structure Theory detailing what goes on in markets at certain key technical levels, Market Rollover for Futures Markets, the different types of trading from scalping to long term investing, and the sub categories of these definitions, along with the one major downside to avoid in Swing Trading as a strategy that has sunk many a swing trader. VRX should serve as a warning sign to long term investors, no asset has any real value these days!

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The Technical Setup Examined (Video)

April 22, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We examine and lay out your first setup as a technical day trader, you are now a profitable trader, you now have a system of one setup to build upon as a pure technical price action trader. It takes discipline to only stick to trading your proven setups, but it is the only holy grail of trading and making money in financial markets.

All other types of investing is pure gambling these days once central banks completely destroyed "old school investing" as we knew it. In all honesty it is the most responsible way to invest these days given that true price discovery in markets has been destroyed by governments and central banks intruding in financial markets.

This is why you subscribe to EconMatters, I will give you inside stuff, industry stuff that actually works, where you can make money or have great insight into how financial markets really operate behind the scenes. I don`t know how long I will do this little enterprise, so take advantage of it while you can. Regards

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EIA Oil Report Analysis 4-20-2017 (Video)

April 21, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We discuss the EIA Weekly Petroleum Report in this video along with the fundamental, structural and technical aspects of the oil market and oil futures market. We are entering the seasonally strong part of the refining cycle over the next 10 weeks.

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Indonesia maintains rate, growth to accelerate in Q2

April 20, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Indonesia's central bank left its benchmark 7-day reverse repo (RR) rate steady at 4.75 percent, as expected, saying economic growth in the first quarter of this year was likely to be below expectations due to slower growth in retail and automotive sales.
     However, growth is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, supported by stronger investment and exports while consumption would be stable. Rising commodity prices and stronger external demand would help drive exports and investment, Bank Indonesia (BI) said.
    Last month BI forecast economic growth this year of 5.0 to 5.4 percent, up from 5.02 percent in 2016 and 4.88 percent in 2015 on stronger private consumption, rising exports, higher government spending and improve private and government investment.
     Economic activity in Indonesia slowed in the fourth quarter of last year as consumer spending eased along with government spending while exports and investments rose. On a quarterly basis, Gross Domestic Product shrank by 1.77 percent from the third quarter while on an annual basis GDP rose by 4.94 percent, down from 5.01 percent in the third quarter.
    BI cut its 7 day RR rate twice last year by a total of 50 basis points following four cuts in its previous benchmark rate by a total of 100 points from January through June.

    As in its March statement, BI said global economic growth is expected to continue to improve although it was keeping a close eye on a number of risks, such as inflationary pressure in developed countries, which could trigger tighter monetary policy,  higher U.S. interest rates and asset sales that could boost the U.S. dollar and thus the cost borrowing, geopolitical risks in Europe "related to the strengthening of the wave of populism," U.K. talks about leaving the EU, and Greek debt talks.

   Indonesia's inflation rate eased to a lower-than-expected 3.61 percent in March from 3.83 percent in February due to higher supply of food while administered prices declined due to lower airfares that helped reduce the impact of higher electricity rates.
    Indonesia's rupiah has been firm this year and was trading at 13,327 to the U.S. dollar today, up 1.3 percent since the start of this year.
     BI said appreciation of the rupiah was supported by macroeconomic stability and investors' positive view of the country's economic outlook coupled with easing global risks. This lead to an influx of non-resident capital to Indonesian stocks and government debt.

    Bank Indonesia issued the following statement:

"The BI Board of Governors agreed on 18th and 20th April 2017 to hold the BI 7-day (Reverse) Repo Rate (BI-7 day RR Rate) at 4.75%, while maintaining the Deposit Facility (DF) and Lending Facility (LF) rates at 4.00% and 5.50% respectively, effective 21st April 2017. The decision is consistent with Bank Indonesia’s efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability by driving the domestic economic recovery process. Bank Indonesia continues to monitor various global and domestic risks. Globally, there are indications of a more promising economic outlook for advanced countries but several risks continue to demand vigilance, especially the current discourse on the Federal Reserve reducing its overall balance sheet along with geopolitical factors. At home, Bank Indonesia will monitor the impact of adjustments to administered prices (AP) on inflation as well as ongoing consolidation in the corporate and banking sector, which has undermined the impact of economic stimuli. Therefore, Bank Indonesia will constantly strive to strenghten its monetary, macroprudential and payment system policy mix to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia will continue coordinating with the Government to control inflationary pressures within the target corridor and accelerate structural reforms to support sustainable economic growth.
The global economic outlook is expected to keep improving, albeit several risks that needs to be monitored.The gains are supported by the ongoing strengthening of US economy and accompanied by improvements of Europe and China economies. US growth is becoming increasingly solid on the back of consumption with positive labour market conditions and improved investment, primarily in the energy sector as the oil price continues to rise. Furthermore, economies in Europe could potentially improve on consumption and export gains. Moreover, China’s economy is expected to remain robust, supported by consumption and investment, particularly infrastructure investment. While international commodity prices, including oil, are predicted to remain high, global inflation is predicted to remain under control. Moving forward, several global risks will continue to demand vigilance, including the Federal Reserve’s plan to reduce its overall balance sheet and the impact on global financial markets, the FFR hike plans, and recent geopolitical conditions in several regions. 
Economic growth momentum in Indonesia is expected to remain well in the first quarter of 2017, albeit below previous expectations. The main sources of the growth are stronger investment, solid consumption and positive export performance. First-quarter investment increased on building and non-building investment. Non-building investment improved on the back of commodity price hike, as reflected in the increase of heavy machineries sales for mining and farming. The hike in commodity prices also promoted export growth. Meanwhile, household consumption growth can potentially moderate slightly in the first quarter of 2017, indicated by slower growth of retail and automotive sales, as an effect of ongoing consolidation in the corporate sector. Economic growth is predicted to accelerate in the second quarter of 2017, supported by stronger investment and export performance, while consumption should remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, rising commodity prices and stronger demand due to the global economic recovery are expected to drive exports and investment. Looking forward, the role of fiscal stimuli, in terms of catalysing economic growth, should be maintained.
Indonesia’s trade balance recorded another USD1.23 billion surplus in March 2017, primarily supported by a non-oil and gas trade surplus. Indonesia’s trade balance surplus reached USD3.93 billion in the first quarter of 2017, more than twice of last year’s surplus of USD1.66 billion over the same period. Meanwhile, foreign capital inflows to financial markets in Indonesia reached USD5.33 billion in the first quarter of 2017. Consequently, the position of reserve assets at the end of March 2017 stood at USD121.8 billion, equivalent to 8.9 months of imports or 8.6 months of imports and servicing government external debt, which is well above the international standard of three months. 
The rupiah continued to appreciate in March 2017, supported by macroeconomic stability and the positive perception of investors towards Indonesia’s promising economic outlook, coupled with easing global risks. Throughout the first quarter of 2017, the rupiah appreciated 1.09% (ytd) to close at Rp13,326/USD. Rupiah appreciation was driven by an influx of non-resident capital due to attractive domestic investment assets as well as sounder global factors. Foreign capital inflows were primarily drawn to stocks and government debt securities (SUN). Moving forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to stabilise rupiah exchange rates in line with the currency’s fundamental value, while maintaining market mechanisms.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded deflation in March 2017 as the supply of foodstuffs increased. CPI deflation was recorded at 0.02% (mtm), contrasting inflation of 0.23% (mtm) the month earlier. The main contributors to CPI deflation were volatile foods (VF) after the harvests of several food crops boosted supply. Furthermore, controlled prices were also supported by low core inflation, decelerating from 0.37% (mtm) last month to 0.10% (mtm) in the reporting period. Administered prices (AP) declined due to lower airfares, which reduced the impact of hikes to electricity rates. Moving forward, to maintain inflation within the target range of 4±1%, policy coordination between the Government and Bank Indonesia in inflation control requires constant strengthening, primarily in the face of adjustments to administered prices (AP) as part of the Government’s ongoing energy reforms, coupled with the expected seasonal spike of inflationary pressures during the approach to the holy fasting month. 
Maintained banking industry resilience and stable financial markets continued to support solid financial system stability. In February 2017, the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the banking industry was recorded at 23.0% and the liquidity ratio at 22.2%, while non-performing loans (NPL) stood at 3.2% (gross) or 1.4% (net). The transmission of easing monetary and macroprudential policy continued, albeit restrained by banks’ prudence in managing credit risks. Based on the types of credit, the banks lowered interest rates on working capital loans most significantly (113 bps, yoy), followed by investment loans (83 bps, yoy) and consumer loans (37 bps, yoy). Credit growth in February 2017 was recorded at 8.6% (yoy), up from 8.3% (yoy) the month earlier but curbed by corporate and banking consolidation. On the other hand, deposit growth stood at 9.2% (yoy) in February 2017, down from 10.0% (yoy) in January. On the other hand, nonbank economic financing through the capital market in the form of initial public offerings (IPO) and rights issues, corporate bonds and medium-term notes (MTN) continue to increase. Consistent with expectations of stronger economic growth and the ongoing impact of existing monetary and macroprudential policy easing, credit and deposit growth in 2017 are expected to accelerate to 10-12% and 9-11% respectively.  "

The Bond Calculation (Video)

April 18, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We discuss finance and market concepts regarding traditional bond calculation theory, inflation, real interest rates, negative interest rates, traditional bond market theory, asset allocation strategies, the notion of equity risk premium all in relation to the new frontier of The ZIRP World. Throw most of your graduate level finance principles out the window, as Economist`s have rewritten or think they have created a new model of Monetary Theory that bypasses or makes many Foundational Finance Principles outdated and obsolete.

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