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Monday in Markets (Video)

August 22, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We discuss the market action for this Monday, checking out oil and natural gas, bonds and equities, along with copper, silver, gold and bitcoin in this video. The S&P 500 held critical support so far, but it is very fragile right now. The next leg down will do a lot of technical damage, and hit a cascade of stops, bringing out the selling algos in full force. The 2400 level break with volume confirmation will really shake things up in markets as the put prices explode, leading to additional spike in the VIX, reinforcing the negative feedback loop, causing additional selling in equities, and more carry unwind!

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Voor Acer 4ICP6/60/78 Accu

August 21, 2017 by duke100   Comments (0)

Deze Acer 4ICP6/60/78 Accu is de beste keuze voor uw laptop.Vervangende (niet originele) accu / oplaadbare batterij die volledig compatible is met het origineel. Deze accu Acer 4ICP6/60/78 is tevens beveiligd tegen overladen en kortsluiting en heeft geen last van het geheugen-effect.Op deze Acer 4ICP6/60/78 batterij zit 1 jaar volledige garantie. Tevens heeft u 30 dagen het recht de accu kosteloos te retourneren zonder opgave van reden. De juiste accu en de beste prijs!


Comprehensive Analysis of the Oil Market (Video)

August 20, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We examine the EIA report in considerable detail, discuss the ongoing fundamentals of the oil market which are in tension as we speak, the longer term economic dynamics of the market, and close with some technical talk of the futures market for the WTI and Brent contracts. What is the Backwardation in Brent fortelling about the near term price direction for the oil market? The bears biggest argument remains the 9.5 million barrels a day of Crude Oil Production in the United States. The argument is that the global oil market wasn`t setup for this type of US Oil Production without much more dynamic global growth.

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Financial Markets, Trading Careers, Fund Management and Education Strategy

August 19, 2017 by EconMatters   Comments (0)

By EconMatters

We discuss Trading as a career goal, the Finance Profession, Educational Strategy, the Fund Management landscape and the evolving Investment Banking world in this Finance as a career video. Starting out with a flexible solid educational base with the ability to adapt and constantly learn new things provides for a good start in life!

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Chile maintains rate, notes rise in copper prices

August 19, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

     Chile's central bank kept its monetary policy interest rate at 2.50 percent, as widely expected, and reiterated its neutral guidance while pointing to a "favorable scenario" on the international front, including an increase in prices of copper, the country's main export.
     The Central Bank of Chile, which has cut its rate four times this year by a total of 100 basis points,   also said inflation in July was below the estimate in its last monetary policy report while private consumption remains stable and expectations had become less pessimistic.
      Chile's inflation rate was steady at 1.7 percent in July from June while the exchange rate of the peso continued to gradually appreciate.
      The central bank targets inflation of 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
      The peso was trading at 646.5 to the U.S. dollar today, up 3.6 percent this year.
      Chile's Gross Domestic Product grew by an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from 0.5 percent in the previous quarter.
      In June the central bank cut its 2017 growth forecast to between 1.0-1.75 percent from a previous forecast of 1-2 percent due to weak performance by mining and construction.
      Copper prices fell steadily from 2011 to record lows in January 2016 but have been rising since late last year and especially since May this year. Today, however, they fell sharply.

     The Central Bank of Chile issued the following statement:

"In its monthly monetary policy meeting, the Board of the Central Bank of Chile decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate at 2.5%.

Incoming international news continue to point to a favorable scenario. The world activity outlook has strengthened and global financial conditions remain expansionary. In general, commodity prices have increased, most notably in the case of copper.

On the domestic front, July’s inflation was 0.2%, thus in annual terms it remained at 1.7%, below the last Monetary Policy Report’s estimate. Inflation expectations brought no relevant news. During the second quarter activity posted weak growth, attributable to the performance of some investment-related sectors and some specific factors. Private consumption remains stable, in line with conditions in the labor market and expectations that have become less pessimistic. The peso has appreciated.

The Board reiterates its commitment to conduct monetary policy with flexibility, so that projected inflation stands at 3% over the policy horizon. Any future changes in the monetary policy rate will depend on the implications of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions on the inflationary outlook."


Egypt holds rate, materialization of risks guide changes

August 19, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

     Egypt's central bank kept its policy rates unchanged, as expected, and said the economy had developed largely as expected so its rates were consistent with achieving its inflation target of 13 percent, plus/minus 3 percentage points, by the fourth quarter of 2018 and in single digits thereafter.
     But the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), which has raised its benchmark overnight deposit rate by 1,000 basis points to 18.75 percent since embarking on a tightening cycle in December 2015, added there were several risks surrounding this inflation outlook, most notably inflation expectations, demand-side pressures and the magnitude of any reform to government subsidies and their second-round effects.
     "The materialization of such risks could lead to a stronger than projected loosening or tightening of the committee's stance to ensure that the inflation outlook is consistent with the targeted disinflation path," the CBE's monetary policy committee said.
     Egypt's headline inflation rate accelerated further to 33.0 percent in July from 29.8 percent in June to the highest rate since June 1986 as regulated fuel prices were raised by up to 50 percent, electricity prices by up to 42 percent, and value-added-tax was raised to 14 percent as part of last year's $12 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) aimed at curbing the government budget deficit and reforming the economy.
      Inflation also jumped in the wake of a float of Egypt's pound last November, with the CBE since then raising its policy rates by 700 basis points to contain second-round effects on inflation from government reform measures and the jolt to import prices from the plunge in the pound after the float.
      Despite soaring inflation, Egypt's economy is slowly improving with annual Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter of this year up by 4.9 percent, up from 4.3 percent, 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent in the preceding quarters, the CBE estimated.
      Based on data up to March, the central bank said the structure of economic growth has shifted to net exports and investments rather than consumption, with tourism, natural gas, trade, construction and non-petroleum manufacturing driving economic growth.
      The far-ranging reform of Egypt's economy is being supported by the IMF, which in July released another $1.25 billion as part of the 3-year, $12 billion program.
     "Egypt's reform program is off to a good start," the IMF said on July 13, adding the transition to a flexible exchange rate regime had gone smoothly and the parallel currency market had virtually disappeared and bank reserves had increased significantly.
      The IMF also lauded the CBE's move to reduce inflation by raising its policy rates, absorbing excess liquidity and developing a clearly defined policy anchor to manage inflation expectations.
       The government's efforts to curb its deficit by raising VAT and reforming energy subsidies is forecast to result in a primary surplus in 2017/18 for the first time in a decade, the IMF said, adding significant progress has also been made on structural reforms.
       The IMF forecasts that Egypt's economy will grow 3.5 percent in the 2016/17 financial year, which ended June 30, and then by 4.5 percent in the current 2017/18 financial year.
       Headline inflation is seen averaging 22.1 percent this fiscal year, falling to 10.3 percent by June 2018.

     The Central Bank of Egypt issued the following statement:

"In its meeting held on August 17, 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the Central Bank of Egypt's (CBE) main operation unchanged at 18.75 percent, 19.75 percent, and 19.25 percent, respectively. The discount rate was also kept unchanged 19.25 percent.
Since the MPC meeting on July 6, 2017, annual headline inflation inched up to 33.0 percent in July 2017, after remaining broadly unchanged at 29.8 percent in June 2017 compared to May 2017, where it registered the first decline since October 2016. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rose to 35.3 percent in July from 31.9 percent in June, after declining between March and May.
The recent increase reflected an expected upward adjustment of regulated hydrocarbon prices and a higher VAT rate. In addition to the direct effects of higher hydrocarbon prices on headline inflation, several CPI items echoed indirect effects, notably food, and services such as inland transportation, cafés and restaurants and outpatient services. Moreover, other regulated prices also rose such as tobacco, public hospitals, and landline telephones, while higher prices of motor oils and medical products increased the contribution of retail items somewhat.
Prices of retail items have not been contributing to headline inflation since March 2017, except in June due to the seasonal effect of Eid-El-Fitr on clothing prices. Services have been also only contributing marginally to headline inflation since January 2017, except in May due to higher prices of pilgrimage. Both exceptions reflected a delayed impact of the depreciation of the Egyptian pound on seasonal items. In the meantime, after bottoming in March 2017, the contribution of core food inflation rose somewhat between April and June and by a greater extent in July, while the contribution of volatile food inflation has been declining, except for an uptick in July, leading core food items to be the main contributor to food inflation since May.
Meanwhile, annual real GDP growth continued to strengthen in the quarter ending June 2017 and leading activity indicators solidify this improvement. In the quarter ending June, real GDP reportedly grew by 4.9 percent, up from 4.3 percent, 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent in the preceding quarters. This coincided with the narrowing of the unemployment rate to below 12.0 percent in the quarter ending June 2017 from 12.0 percent, 12.4 percent and 12.6 percent in the preceding quarters. Available data up to March showed that the structure of economic growth shifted towards increased sustainability with declining contribution of consumption and increasing contribution of net exports as well as investment by a lesser extent. Tourism, natural gas, trade, construction and non-petroleum manufacturing were the main sectors driving economic growth.
Given the strengthening of demand indicators, in addition to the strong second-round effects of the economic reform measures implemented in November 2016, and in anticipation of the second-round effects of the subsidy-reform measures implemented in June and July 2017, the MPC had raised the CBE's key policy rates to achieve the targeted disinflation path over the specified horizon. Consistent with the tighter monetary policy stance, annual reserve money (M0) growth adjusted by overnight deposits and seven-day deposit auctions shrunk to reflect the absorption of excess liquidity via longer- term operations. The MPC reiterates that it tolerates higher inflation as a result of first-round effects of such supply shocks and uses its monetary policy tools to contain the second-round effects.
Incoming information since the MPC last met were broadly as expected, accordingly, the MPC judges that current policy rates remain consistent with achieving the inflation target of 13 percent (+/- 3 percent) in 2018 Q4 and single digits thereafter. Nevertheless, there are several risks surrounding the baseline inflation outlook, notably the evolution of inflation expectations, demand-side pressures as well as the magnitude of any subsidy-reform measures and their second-round effects. The materialization of such risks could lead to a stronger than projected loosening or tightening of the committee's stance to ensure that the inflation outlook is consistent with the targeted disinflation path.

The MPC will continue to closely monitor all economic developments as well as the balance of risks, and will not hesitate to adjust its stance to offset anticipated upside or downside deviations from the inflation target."


Namibia cuts rate 25 bps amid weak economy, easing CPI

August 19, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

    Namibia's central bank cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent "to support domestic economic activity" amid declining inflation and an increase in international reserves that are  sufficient to sustain the currency peg between the Nambian dollar and the South African rand.
     It is Bank of Namibia's first rate cut since August 2012 and the first change in rates since a rate hike in April 2016, and comes a month after the bank cut its 2017 growth forecast to 2.1 percent from 2.9 percent due to uncertainty around a recovery in the price of uranium.
     "Activity in the domestic economy remained weak during the first six months of 2017," the central bank said, adding growth in private sector credit extension (PSCE) continued to slow, with annual growth averaging 8.5 percent in the first six months, down from 12.5 percent in the same 2016 period.
     Slower growth in credit, which is in line with general domestic weakness, was due to reduced growth in credit advance to both households and businesses, especially in the form of mortgage and installment credit.
     Namibia's economy shrank by an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of this year for the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction in a row, and up from a decline in Gross Domestic Product of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.
     The decline in economic activity was mainly reflected in construction, manufacturing, wholesale, retail and transport while there was some improvement in mining and communication as well as livestock.
     Namibia's inflation rate eased to 5.4 percent in July from 6.1 percent in June due to lower food inflation.
      The country's stock of international reserves rose to N$32.7 billion as of July 31 to cover 5.5 months of imports, up from N$24.2 billion as of June 1, mainly due to a repatriation of funds by financial institutions, inflow from the African Development Bank and repayments by the National Bank of Angola.
      Namibia's central bank maintains a one-to-one peg to South Africa's rand and on July 20 the South African Reserve Bank cut its repo rate by 25 basis points on a worsening outlook for growth.
      Against the U.S. dollar, the Namibian dollar was trading at 13.2 today, up 3.8 percent this year.


Thailand holds rate, monitoring rise in baht's FX rate

August 19, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

     Thailand's central bank left its policy rate at 1.50 percent, as expected, and maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance as improving domestic demand is not yet sufficiently broad-based and inflation had risen at a slightly slower pace than expected.
      But the Bank of Thailand (BOT), which has maintained its rate since April 2015, also put financial markets on notice that it was concerned about the rise in the exchange rate of the baht, which it attributed to the country's stronger external position along with "decreased investor confidence in the US dollar."
      "However, the Committee noted that the stronger appreciation of the baht relative to those of regional currencies in some periods might affect business adjustments and thus would continue to closely monitor developments in the foreign exchange market," the BOT's monetary policy committee said.
      The BOT has in recent months voiced its concern over the strength of the baht but today's statement is stronger than last month's statement when it merely observed that recent movements in the exchange rate were in line with regional currencies.
       The baht, which was hit sharply during the "taper tantrum" of 2013, has been rising steadily since  December last year on rising optimism about the prospects for global growth and emerging market economies.
      Today the baht was trading at 33.28 to the U.S. dollar, up 7.6 percent this year.
      Thailand's headline inflation rate rose to a lower-than-expected 0.17 percent in July from a fall of 0.05 percent in June, the second month of deflation, as fresh food prices fell due to improved harvest while inflationary pressures from domestic demand remained low.
       But the BOT still expects inflation to slowly rise in the second half of this year as supply side pressures slowly dissipate and domestic demand recovers. The BOT targets inflation of 1-4 percent.
      The outlook for Thailand's economy has been improving due to a rise in a wide range of merchandise exports, a continued expansion in tourism and higher agricultural output.
     And while domestic demand is also expanding, the BOT said it was not sufficiently broad-based while public investment growth was softer than expected and construction investment moderated.
     Thailand's Gross Domestic Product grew by an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the first quarter of this year, up from 3.0 percent in the previous quarter.
      In June the International Monetary Fund raised its 2017 growth forecast for Thailand to 3.2 percent from 3 percent while the BOT has forecast growth of 3.5 percent, up from 2016's 3.2 percent.

     The Bank of Thailand issued the following statement:

"The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.50 percent.
One MPC member was unable to attend this meeting.

In deliberating their policy decision, the Committee assessed that Thailand’s growth outlook improved further on the back of the expansion in merchandise and services exports. Meanwhile, domestic demand continued to expand at a gradual pace, although it was not sufficiently broad-based. Headline inflation gradually rose at a slightly slower pace than previously expected mainly because of supply-side factors, especially fresh food prices. Overall financial conditions remained accommodative and conducive to economic growth. Hence, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at this meeting.

Thailand’s economic growth gained further traction on account of stronger growth in merchandise exports across various product categories and destinations, continued expansion in tourism, and higher agricultural output. Meanwhile, private consumption continued to expand at a gradual pace. Private investment was projected to expand slowly as construction investment moderated. Public investment growth was softer than previously expected. The improved growth outlook was still subject to external risks, such as trading partners’ growth outlook, uncertainties pertaining to US economic and foreign trade policies, and geopolitical risks.

Headline inflation increased at a slightly slower pace than the previous assessment due primarily to supply-side factors. In particular, fresh food prices declined as a result of this year’s higher agricultural output thanks to favorable weather conditions and last year’s base effects following the drought. Meanwhile, demand-pull inflationary pressures remained low. Nevertheless, headline inflation was projected to slowly rise in the latter half of the year from the gradual dissipation of supply-side pressures and the recovery in domestic demand. The public’s inflation expectations remained close to the midpoint of the target.

Overall financial conditions remained accommodative and conducive to economic growth with ample liquidity in the financial system. Government bond yields and real interest rates remained low, with short-term bond yields held down by decreased issuances of short- term BOT bonds and treasury bills. Meanwhile, business financing through credit and capital markets continued to expand. With regard to exchange rate movements over the recent period, the baht appreciated due to decreased investor confidence in the US dollar coupled with Thailand’s stronger external position. However, the Committee noted that the stronger appreciation of the baht relative to those of regional currencies in some periods might affect business adjustments and thus would continue to closely monitor developments in the foreign exchange market.

The Committee viewed that financial stability remained sound with sufficient cushion against economic and financial volatilities on both domestic and external fronts. However, there remained pockets of risks that warranted close monitoring, particularly the search-for- yield behavior in the prolonged low interest rate environment that might lead to underpricing of risks, and the deterioration in debt serviceability of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs).

Looking ahead, Thailand’s growth outlook improved further on the back of external demand, with the recovery of domestic demand to be monitored. Hence, the Committee viewed that monetary policy should remain accommodative, and would stand ready to utilize available policy tools to sustain economic growth while also ensuring financial stability."


Armenia maintains rate for 3rd time, inflation seen rising

August 19, 2017 by CentralBankNews   Comments (0)

     Armenia's central bank left its benchmark refinancing rate at 6.0 percent for the third time in a row, confirming that it still expects inflation to gradually rise due to improving economic activity and a recovery of domestic demand amid a restrained fiscal policy.
      The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has maintained its rate since February after slashing the rate 12 times by a total of 450 basis points beginning in August 2015.
      Armenia's inflation rate dropped 2.6 percent in July from June for an annual rate of 0.9 percent, down from 1.1 percent, due to a seasonal fall in agricultural product prices.
      With more stable international commodity markets, the CBA said it didn't expect any significant inflationary effects from the external sector in coming months so inflation should gradually rise due to improving domestic demand and high economic activity.
      The CBA reiterated its view from June that it expects inflation to stabilize around its target by the end of this year and remain in that range during the forecast horizon, with monetary and credit conditions remaining unchanged for some time.
     The CBA, which targets inflation of 2.50 - 5.50 percent around a 4.0 percent midpoint, will issue its third quarter inflation report on Aug. 25.
     Armenia's Gross Domestic Product jumped by an annual 6.5 percent in the first quarter of this year from minus 1.0 percent in the previous quarter, for the strongest expansion since the first quarter of 2013.
     Armenia's economy was hit hard by Russia's economic crises, with the exchange rate of its dram plunging in November 2014 in response to the fall in Russia's ruble. But after a series of rate hikes between December 2014 and February 2015, the dram stabilized.
     Since August 2015 the CBA has been easing its monetary policy and growth in the first quarter of this year was boosted by the sectors of manufacturing, electricity, trade, transportation, information, financial and accommodation.
      Last month the International Monetary Fund said Armenia's economy was showing signs of a recovery after the past falls in remittances and the price of copper, the country's main export, had weighed on growth since late 2014.
      The IMF forecast 2017 and 2018 growth of 2.9 percent, respectively, and 3.0 percent in 2019, sharply up from 0.2 percent in 2016.
       Armenia's medium-term growth is projected at 3.5 to 4.0 percent with potential growth now estimated to be 1 percentage point lower than in the pre-crises period, with risks stemming from remittances, copper prices and growth in its key trading partners.
      Improving economic activity is also pushing up inflation and private sector credit growth, the IMF said, forecasting 1.8 percent inflation by end-2017, rising to 4.0 percent by the end of 2018 and 2019. This compares with minus 1.1 percent inflation end-2016.
      The exchange rate of Armenia's dram has been slowly appreciating this year and was trading at 478.3 to the U.S. dollar today, up 1.2 percent this year.